Sat, Dec 16 2023
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
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🏟 Brooks Stadium
Conway, SC
·
Turf
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9,214 cap
Georgia Southern✈ 186 miSame TZ
Ohio✈ 418 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia Southern,
while Game Control favors Ohio.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Georgia Southern wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Ohio wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Georgia Southern -1.5
O/U 48.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Southern 2023 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Georgia Southern vs The Citadel | -34.0W34–0 | 53.5 | W34–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Georgia Southern vs UAB | -7.0W49–35 | 63.0 | W49–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Georgia Southern at Wisconsin | +20.5L14–35 | 65.5 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Georgia Southern at Ball State | -6.0W40–3 | 60.0 | W40–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina | -6.0W38–28 | 67.5 | W38–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Georgia Southern at James Madison | +5.5L13–41 | 60.0 | L13–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Georgia Southern vs UL Monroe | -16.5W38–28 | 60.5 | W38–28 | O | N |
| Thu 10/26 | Georgia Southern vs Georgia State | +1.0W44–27 | 63.0 | W44–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Georgia Southern at Texas State | -2.0L24–45 | 69.0 | L24–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Georgia Southern at Marshall | -1.5L33–38 | 56.5 | L33–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion | -4.5L17–20 | 61.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Georgia Southern at App State | +7.5L27–55 | 62.5 | L27–55 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Georgia Southern vs Ohio | -1.5L21–41 | 48.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
Ohio 2023 Schedule
Ohio's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Ohio at San Diego State | +2.0L13–20 | 48.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/2 | Ohio vs Long Island University | -34.5W27–10 | 58.0 | W27–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Ohio at Florida Atlantic | +3.5W17–10 | 61.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Ohio vs Iowa State | +1.5W10–7 | 42.0 | W10–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Ohio at Bowling Green | -13.0W38–7 | 45.0 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Ohio vs Kent State | -24.5W42–17 | 45.5 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Ohio at Northern Illinois | -5.5L13–23 | 45.0 | L13–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Ohio vs Western Michigan | -16.5W20–17 | 52.0 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Ohio vs Miami (OH) | -7.5L16–30 | 39.0 | L16–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/7 | Ohio at Buffalo | -9.5W20–10 | 45.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/15 | Ohio vs Central Michigan | -11.5W34–20 | 48.5 | W34–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Ohio at Akron | -13.5W25–14 | 41.5 | W25–14 | U | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Ohio vs Georgia Southern | +1.5W41–21 | 48.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Southern Edge
Georgia Southern +0.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +2.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ohio
85.4 — 6.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ohio won by 20
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Southern
Clay Helton #1
8–8 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Bryan Ellis
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brandon Bailey
Yr 1
#1
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
16–14 (53%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Scott Isphording
Yr 2
#1
DC
Spence Nowinsky
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓