Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Ole Miss wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
LSU -3
O/U 67.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → LSU
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
LSU 2023 Schedule
LSU's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/3 | LSU vs Florida State | -2.0L24–45 | 56.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | LSU vs Grambling | -56.5W72–10 | 61.5 | W72–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | LSU at Mississippi State | -9.5W41–14 | 54.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | LSU vs Arkansas | -17.5W34–31 | 55.0 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | LSU at Ole Miss | -3.0L49–55 | 67.0 | L49–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | LSU at Missouri | -6.0W49–39 | 63.5 | W49–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | LSU vs Auburn | -11.0W48–18 | 60.0 | W48–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | LSU vs Army | -33.0W62–0 | 60.0 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | LSU at Alabama | +3.0L28–42 | 61.5 | L28–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | LSU vs Florida | -14.0W52–35 | 68.5 | W52–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | LSU vs Georgia State | -32.5W56–14 | 73.5 | W56–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | LSU vs Texas A&M | -10.5W42–30 | 67.5 | W42–30 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/1 | LSU vs Wisconsin | -9.5W35–31 | 59.5 | W35–31 | O | N |
Ole Miss 2023 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Ole Miss vs Mercer | -35.0W73–7 | 59.5 | W73–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Ole Miss at Tulane | -8.0W37–20 | 64.0 | W37–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech | -17.0W48–23 | 61.5 | W48–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Ole Miss at Alabama | +7.0L10–24 | 56.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Ole Miss vs LSU | +3.0W55–49 | 67.0 | W55–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Ole Miss vs Arkansas | -13.0W27–20 | 61.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Ole Miss at Auburn | -6.5W28–21 | 55.5 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt | -24.0W33–7 | 62.0 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Ole Miss vs Texas A&M | -3.0W38–35 | 52.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Ole Miss at Georgia | +11.0L17–52 | 59.0 | L17–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Ole Miss vs UL Monroe | -35.5W35–3 | 59.5 | W35–3 | U | N |
| Thu 11/23 | Ole Miss at Mississippi State | -11.0W17–7 | 56.0 | W17–7 | U | N |
| Sat 12/30 | Ole Miss vs Penn State | +5.5W38–25 | 53.0 | W38–25 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ LSU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
LSU +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +3.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ole Miss
1 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Ole Miss
45.1 — 34.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ole Miss won by 6
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ole Miss, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
LSU
Brian Kelly #1
12–5 (71%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mike Denbrock
Yr 2
#1
DC
Matt House
Yr 2
#1
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
26–13 (67%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
John David Baker
Yr 1
#1
DC
Pete Golding
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓