Matchup Prediction
Georgia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Georgia wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Georgia wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Georgia -14
O/U 44.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia 2023 Schedule
Georgia's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Georgia vs UT Martin | -50.0W48–7 | 56.5 | W48–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Georgia vs Ball State | -42.0W45–3 | 52.5 | W45–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Georgia vs South Carolina | -27.0W24–14 | 54.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Georgia vs UAB | -40.0W49–21 | 56.0 | W49–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Georgia at Auburn | -14.0W27–20 | 44.5 | W27–20 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Georgia vs Kentucky | -14.5W51–13 | 47.0 | W51–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Georgia at Vanderbilt | -32.5W37–20 | 55.0 | W37–20 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Georgia vs Florida | -14.0W43–20 | 50.0 | W43–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Georgia vs Missouri | -15.0W30–21 | 56.5 | W30–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Georgia vs Ole Miss | -11.0W52–17 | 59.0 | W52–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Georgia at Tennessee | -9.0W38–10 | 59.0 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Georgia at Georgia Tech | -23.0W31–23 | 59.5 | W31–23 | U | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Georgia vs Alabama | -5.0L24–27 | 56.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 12/30 | Georgia vs Florida State | -23.5W63–3 | 47.0 | W63–3 | O | Y |
Auburn 2023 Schedule
Auburn's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Auburn vs Massachusetts | -35.0W59–14 | 52.0 | W59–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Auburn at California | -5.0W14–10 | 55.5 | W14–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Auburn vs Samford | -37.5W45–13 | 62.0 | W45–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Auburn at Texas A&M | +9.5L10–27 | 51.0 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Auburn vs Georgia | +14.0L20–27 | 44.5 | L20–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Auburn at LSU | +11.0L18–48 | 60.0 | L18–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Auburn vs Ole Miss | +6.5L21–28 | 55.5 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Auburn vs Mississippi State | -6.5W27–13 | 40.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Auburn at Vanderbilt | -12.5W31–15 | 50.0 | W31–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Auburn at Arkansas | +2.5W48–10 | 46.5 | W48–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Auburn vs New Mexico State | -25.5L10–31 | 48.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Auburn vs Alabama | +14.0L24–27 | 48.0 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/30 | Auburn vs Maryland | -4.0L13–31 | 47.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +20.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Auburn
39.3 — 25.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia
Kirby Smart #1
84–15 (85%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Mike Bobo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Will Muschamp
Yr 2
#1
Auburn
Hugh Freeze #1
3–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Philip Montgomery
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ron Roberts
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓