Penn State at Utah Week 1 College Football Matchup Penn State at Utah Matchup - Week 1
Mon, Jan 2 2023 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Rose Bowl Pasadena, CA · Turf · 92,542 cap
Penn State✈ 2,237 mi-3 hr TZ Utah✈ 572 mi-1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
35 21
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Penn State
30
PSU -1.5
Utah
27
P&R Line Penn State -3
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Penn State -1.5 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Penn State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Penn State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Penn State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Penn State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Penn State -1.5
O/U 55.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Penn State · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Penn State 2022 Schedule
Penn State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1Penn State at Purdue-3.5W35–3153.5W35–31OY
Sat 9/10Penn State vs Ohio-28.0W46–1055.0W46–10OY
Sat 9/17Penn State at Auburn-2.5W41–1247.5W41–12OY
Sat 9/24Penn State vs Central Michigan-28.0W33–1461.5W33–14UN
Sat 10/1Penn State vs Northwestern-25.5W17–750.0W17–7UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/15Penn State at Michigan+7.0L17–4149.0L17–41ON
Sat 10/22Penn State vs Minnesota-5.5W45–1743.0W45–17OY
Sat 10/29Penn State vs Ohio State+15.5L31–4460.5L31–44OY
Sat 11/5Penn State at Indiana-13.5W45–1450.0W45–14OY
Sat 11/12Penn State vs Maryland-10.5W30–056.5W30–0UY
Sat 11/19Penn State at Rutgers-18.5W55–1045.0W55–10OY
Sat 11/26Penn State vs Michigan State-19.0W35–1654.5W35–16UN
Mon 1/2Penn State vs Utah-1.5W35–2155.5W35–21OY
Utah 2022 Schedule
Utah's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Utah at Florida-2.5L26–2952.0L26–29ON
Sat 9/10Utah vs Southern Utah-45.5W73–758.5W73–7OY
Sat 9/17Utah vs San Diego State-21.5W35–748.0W35–7UY
Sat 9/24Utah at Arizona State-16.5W34–1354.0W34–13UY
Sat 10/1Utah vs Oregon State-10.5W42–1654.0W42–16OY
Sat 10/8Utah at UCLA-3.0L32–4264.5L32–42ON
Sat 10/15Utah vs USC-3.5W43–4265.0W43–42ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/27Utah at Washington State-7.5W21–1756.5W21–17UN
Sat 11/5Utah vs Arizona-17.5W45–2067.5W45–20UY
Sat 11/12Utah vs Stanford-23.5W42–754.0W42–7UY
Sat 11/19Utah at Oregon-2.5L17–2060.0L17–20UN
Sat 11/26Utah at Colorado-30.0W63–2152.0W63–21OY
Fri 12/2Utah vs USC+3.0W47–2467.5W47–24OY
Mon 1/2Utah vs Penn State+1.5L21–3555.5L21–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Penn State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Penn State
+0.431
Utah
+0.363
Penn State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Penn State
+0.535
Utah
+0.324
Penn State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Penn State
0.254
Utah
0.192
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Penn State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Penn State
+8.470
Utah
+7.548
Penn State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Penn State
+0.824
Utah
+0.895
Utah Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Penn State
69.9
Utah
67.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Utah Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Penn State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Penn State
8.8
Utah
7.3
Offense Rating
Penn State
19.0
Utah
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Penn State
10.2
Utah
10.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Penn State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Penn State #7
1.83
Utah #34
1.62
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Penn State #27
0.50
Utah #33
0.54
Penn State +0.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Penn State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Penn State #1
70.9
Utah #1
65.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Penn State #8
19.3
Utah #27
23.0
Penn State +5.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Penn State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Penn State
James Franklin #1
66–34 (66%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Mike Yurcich Yr 2 #1
DC Manny Diaz Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
144–70 (67%) · Yr 18 at school
OC Andy Ludwig Yr 2 #1
DC Morgan Scalley Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself