Mon, Jan 2 2023
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA
·
Turf
·
92,542 cap
Penn State✈ 2,237 mi-3 hr TZ
Utah✈ 572 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Penn State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Penn State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Penn State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Penn State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Penn State -1.5
O/U 55.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Penn State
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Penn State 2022 Schedule
Penn State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Penn State at Purdue | -3.5W35–31 | 53.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Penn State vs Ohio | -28.0W46–10 | 55.0 | W46–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Penn State at Auburn | -2.5W41–12 | 47.5 | W41–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Penn State vs Central Michigan | -28.0W33–14 | 61.5 | W33–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Penn State vs Northwestern | -25.5W17–7 | 50.0 | W17–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Penn State at Michigan | +7.0L17–41 | 49.0 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Penn State vs Minnesota | -5.5W45–17 | 43.0 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Penn State vs Ohio State | +15.5L31–44 | 60.5 | L31–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Penn State at Indiana | -13.5W45–14 | 50.0 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Penn State vs Maryland | -10.5W30–0 | 56.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Penn State at Rutgers | -18.5W55–10 | 45.0 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Penn State vs Michigan State | -19.0W35–16 | 54.5 | W35–16 | U | N |
| Mon 1/2 | Penn State vs Utah | -1.5W35–21 | 55.5 | W35–21 | O | Y |
Utah 2022 Schedule
Utah's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Utah at Florida | -2.5L26–29 | 52.0 | L26–29 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Utah vs Southern Utah | -45.5W73–7 | 58.5 | W73–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Utah vs San Diego State | -21.5W35–7 | 48.0 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Utah at Arizona State | -16.5W34–13 | 54.0 | W34–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Utah vs Oregon State | -10.5W42–16 | 54.0 | W42–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Utah at UCLA | -3.0L32–42 | 64.5 | L32–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Utah vs USC | -3.5W43–42 | 65.0 | W43–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/27 | Utah at Washington State | -7.5W21–17 | 56.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Utah vs Arizona | -17.5W45–20 | 67.5 | W45–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Utah vs Stanford | -23.5W42–7 | 54.0 | W42–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Utah at Oregon | -2.5L17–20 | 60.0 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Utah at Colorado | -30.0W63–21 | 52.0 | W63–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/2 | Utah vs USC | +3.0W47–24 | 67.5 | W47–24 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/2 | Utah vs Penn State | +1.5L21–35 | 55.5 | L21–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +0.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +5.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Penn State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Penn State
James Franklin #1
66–34 (66%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Mike Yurcich
Yr 2
#1
DC
Manny Diaz
Yr 1
#1
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
144–70 (67%)
· Yr 18 at school
OC
Andy Ludwig
Yr 2
#1
DC
Morgan Scalley
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

