Sat, Nov 19 2022
·
Week 12
·
🏟 SHI Stadium
Piscataway, NJ
·
Turf
·
52,454 cap
Penn State✈ 6,553 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Penn State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Penn State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Penn State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Penn State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Penn State -18.5
O/U 45.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Penn State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Penn State 2022 Schedule
Penn State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Penn State at Purdue | -3.5W35–31 | 53.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Penn State vs Ohio | -28.0W46–10 | 55.0 | W46–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Penn State at Auburn | -2.5W41–12 | 47.5 | W41–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Penn State vs Central Michigan | -28.0W33–14 | 61.5 | W33–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Penn State vs Northwestern | -25.5W17–7 | 50.0 | W17–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Penn State at Michigan | +7.0L17–41 | 49.0 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Penn State vs Minnesota | -5.5W45–17 | 43.0 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Penn State vs Ohio State | +15.5L31–44 | 60.5 | L31–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Penn State at Indiana | -13.5W45–14 | 50.0 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Penn State vs Maryland | -10.5W30–0 | 56.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Penn State at Rutgers | -18.5W55–10 | 45.0 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Penn State vs Michigan State | -19.0W35–16 | 54.5 | W35–16 | U | N |
| Mon 1/2 | Penn State vs Utah | -1.5W35–21 | 55.5 | W35–21 | O | Y |
Rutgers 2022 Schedule
Rutgers's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Rutgers at Boston College | +8.5W22–21 | 47.0 | W22–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Rutgers vs Wagner | -48.5W66–7 | 55.5 | W66–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Rutgers at Temple | -18.0W16–14 | 42.5 | W16–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Rutgers vs Iowa | +7.5L10–27 | 34.5 | L10–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Rutgers at Ohio State | +39.0L10–49 | 58.0 | L10–49 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/7 | Rutgers vs Nebraska | +3.0L13–14 | 50.5 | L13–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Rutgers vs Indiana | -3.0W24–17 | 48.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Rutgers at Minnesota | +14.0L0–31 | 40.5 | L0–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Rutgers vs Michigan | +26.0L17–52 | 45.0 | L17–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Rutgers at Michigan State | +10.0L21–27 | 41.0 | L21–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Rutgers vs Penn State | +18.5L10–55 | 45.0 | L10–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Rutgers at Maryland | +14.5L0–37 | 48.5 | L0–37 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Penn State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +1.47
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +35.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Penn State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Penn State
James Franklin #1
66–34 (66%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Mike Yurcich
Yr 2
#1
DC
Manny Diaz
Yr 1
#1
Rutgers
Greg Schiano #1
8–14 (36%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Sean Gleeson
Yr 2
#1
DC
Joe Harasymiak
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓