Sat, Nov 12 2022
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
·
Turf
·
106,572 cap
Maryland✈ 134 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Penn State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Penn State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Penn State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Penn State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Penn State -10.5
O/U 56.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Penn State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Maryland 2022 Schedule
Maryland's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Maryland vs Buffalo | -24.0W31–10 | 66.0 | W31–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Maryland at Charlotte | -28.0W56–21 | 65.0 | W56–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Maryland vs SMU | -3.0W34–27 | 74.0 | W34–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Maryland at Michigan | +17.0L27–34 | 66.0 | L27–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Maryland vs Michigan State | -7.5W27–13 | 58.5 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Maryland vs Purdue | -3.0L29–31 | 59.5 | L29–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Maryland at Indiana | -11.0W38–33 | 63.0 | W38–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Maryland vs Northwestern | -14.0W31–24 | 51.0 | W31–24 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Maryland at Wisconsin | +5.0L10–23 | 47.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Maryland at Penn State | +10.5L0–30 | 56.5 | L0–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Maryland vs Ohio State | +26.5L30–43 | 62.5 | L30–43 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Maryland vs Rutgers | -14.5W37–0 | 48.5 | W37–0 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/30 | Maryland vs NC State | +2.5W16–12 | 45.0 | W16–12 | U | Y |
Penn State 2022 Schedule
Penn State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Penn State at Purdue | -3.5W35–31 | 53.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Penn State vs Ohio | -28.0W46–10 | 55.0 | W46–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Penn State at Auburn | -2.5W41–12 | 47.5 | W41–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Penn State vs Central Michigan | -28.0W33–14 | 61.5 | W33–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Penn State vs Northwestern | -25.5W17–7 | 50.0 | W17–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Penn State at Michigan | +7.0L17–41 | 49.0 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Penn State vs Minnesota | -5.5W45–17 | 43.0 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Penn State vs Ohio State | +15.5L31–44 | 60.5 | L31–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Penn State at Indiana | -13.5W45–14 | 50.0 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Penn State vs Maryland | -10.5W30–0 | 56.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Penn State at Rutgers | -18.5W55–10 | 45.0 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Penn State vs Michigan State | -19.0W35–16 | 54.5 | W35–16 | U | N |
| Mon 1/2 | Penn State vs Utah | -1.5W35–21 | 55.5 | W35–21 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Penn State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +0.56
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +8.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Penn State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Penn State
96.8 — 1.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Penn State won by 30
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Penn State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Maryland
Mike Locksley #1
12–23 (34%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Dan Enos
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brian Williams
Yr 2
#1
Penn State
James Franklin #1
66–34 (66%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Mike Yurcich
Yr 2
#1
DC
Manny Diaz
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓