Sat, Oct 15 2022
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI
·
Turf
·
107,601 cap
Penn State✈ 320 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Michigan
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Michigan -7
O/U 49.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Michigan
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Penn State 2022 Schedule
Penn State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Penn State at Purdue | -3.5W35–31 | 53.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Penn State vs Ohio | -28.0W46–10 | 55.0 | W46–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Penn State at Auburn | -2.5W41–12 | 47.5 | W41–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Penn State vs Central Michigan | -28.0W33–14 | 61.5 | W33–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Penn State vs Northwestern | -25.5W17–7 | 50.0 | W17–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Penn State at Michigan | +7.0L17–41 | 49.0 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Penn State vs Minnesota | -5.5W45–17 | 43.0 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Penn State vs Ohio State | +15.5L31–44 | 60.5 | L31–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Penn State at Indiana | -13.5W45–14 | 50.0 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Penn State vs Maryland | -10.5W30–0 | 56.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Penn State at Rutgers | -18.5W55–10 | 45.0 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Penn State vs Michigan State | -19.0W35–16 | 54.5 | W35–16 | U | N |
| Mon 1/2 | Penn State vs Utah | -1.5W35–21 | 55.5 | W35–21 | O | Y |
Michigan 2022 Schedule
Michigan's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Michigan vs Colorado State | -31.0W51–7 | 60.5 | W51–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Michigan vs Hawai'i | -52.5W56–10 | 66.5 | W56–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Michigan vs UConn | -47.5W59–0 | 59.0 | W59–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Michigan vs Maryland | -17.0W34–27 | 66.0 | W34–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Michigan at Iowa | -10.5W27–14 | 42.0 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Michigan at Indiana | -23.5W31–10 | 57.5 | W31–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Michigan vs Penn State | -7.0W41–17 | 49.0 | W41–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Michigan vs Michigan State | -22.0W29–7 | 55.0 | W29–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Michigan at Rutgers | -26.0W52–17 | 45.0 | W52–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Michigan vs Nebraska | -30.5W34–3 | 49.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Michigan vs Illinois | -17.0W19–17 | 41.5 | W19–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Michigan at Ohio State | +9.0W45–23 | 56.0 | W45–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Michigan vs Purdue | -16.0W43–22 | 53.0 | W43–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/31 | Michigan vs TCU | -8.0L45–51 | 56.0 | L45–51 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Michigan Edge
Michigan +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Michigan Edge
Michigan +14.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Michigan
80.1 — 8.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan won by 24
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Michigan with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Penn State
James Franklin #1
66–34 (66%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Mike Yurcich
Yr 2
#1
DC
Manny Diaz
Yr 1
#1
Michigan
Jim Harbaugh #1
61–24 (72%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Sherrone Moore
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jesse Minter
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓