Sat, Sep 10 2022
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Week 2
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🏟 Rice-Eccles Stadium
Salt Lake City, UT
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Turf
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45,807 cap
Southern Utah✈ 223 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Utah -45.5
O/U 58.5
consensus
Southern Utah 2022 Schedule
Southern Utah's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Southern Utah at Utah | +45.5L7–73 | 58.5 | L7–73 | O | N |
Utah 2022 Schedule
Utah's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Utah at Florida | -2.5L26–29 | 52.0 | L26–29 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Utah vs Southern Utah | -45.5W73–7 | 58.5 | W73–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Utah vs San Diego State | -21.5W35–7 | 48.0 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Utah at Arizona State | -16.5W34–13 | 54.0 | W34–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Utah vs Oregon State | -10.5W42–16 | 54.0 | W42–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Utah at UCLA | -3.0L32–42 | 64.5 | L32–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Utah vs USC | -3.5W43–42 | 65.0 | W43–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/27 | Utah at Washington State | -7.5W21–17 | 56.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Utah vs Arizona | -17.5W45–20 | 67.5 | W45–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Utah vs Stanford | -23.5W42–7 | 54.0 | W42–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Utah at Oregon | -2.5L17–20 | 60.0 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Utah at Colorado | -30.0W63–21 | 52.0 | W63–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/2 | Utah vs USC | +3.0W47–24 | 67.5 | W47–24 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/2 | Utah vs Penn State | +1.5L21–35 | 55.5 | L21–35 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Southern Utah Edge
Southern Utah +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Southern Utah Edge
Southern Utah +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Utah, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓