Sat, Sep 10 2022
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Scheumann Stadium
Muncie, IN
·
Turf
·
22,500 cap
Western Michigan✈ 143 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Western Michigan
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Western Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Western Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
Western Michigan wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -6.5
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ball State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Western Michigan 2022 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Western Michigan at Michigan State | +22.0L13–35 | 54.5 | L13–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Western Michigan at Ball State | -6.5W37–30 | 51.5 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Western Michigan vs Pittsburgh | +10.0L13–34 | 46.0 | L13–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Western Michigan at San José State | +6.5L6–34 | 49.0 | L6–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Western Michigan vs New Hampshire | -15.0W44–7 | 52.5 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -4.5L23–45 | 55.5 | L23–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Western Michigan vs Ohio | -2.0L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Western Michigan at Miami (OH) | +7.0W16–10 | 44.0 | W16–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/2 | Western Michigan at Bowling Green | +5.0L9–13 | 48.0 | L9–13 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/9 | Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois | +1.0L21–24 | 49.0 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Wed 11/16 | Western Michigan at Central Michigan | +10.0W12–10 | 49.0 | W12–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Western Michigan vs Toledo | +8.5W20–14 | 50.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
Ball State 2022 Schedule
Ball State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Ball State at Tennessee | +37.0L10–59 | 66.5 | L10–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Ball State vs Western Michigan | +6.5L30–37 | 51.5 | L30–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Ball State vs Murray State | -21.0W31–0 | 53.0 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Ball State at Georgia Southern | +9.5L23–34 | 67.0 | L23–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Ball State vs Northern Illinois | +3.5W44–38 | 58.5 | W44–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Ball State at Central Michigan | +7.5W17–16 | 63.0 | W17–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Ball State vs UConn | -9.5W25–21 | 47.5 | W25–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Ball State vs Eastern Michigan | -2.5L16–20 | 57.5 | L16–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/1 | Ball State at Kent State | +7.0W27–20 | 61.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/8 | Ball State at Toledo | +11.0L21–28 | 50.0 | L21–28 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/15 | Ball State vs Ohio | +3.5L18–32 | 57.5 | L18–32 | U | N |
| Tue 11/22 | Ball State at Miami (OH) | +2.5L17–18 | 45.0 | L17–18 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ball State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +2.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ball State
36.6 — 28.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Western Michigan won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Western Michigan, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Tim Lester #1
32–25 (56%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Eric Evans
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lou Esposito
Yr 2
#1
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
28–41 (41%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Kevin Lynch
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tyler Stockton
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓