Wagner at Syracuse Week 5 College Football Matchup Wagner at Syracuse Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Oct 1 2022 · Week 5 · 🏟 Carrier Dome Syracuse, NY · Turf · 49,250 cap
Wagner✈ 197 miSame TZ
Away
0 59
Final
Home
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available. Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance. Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Wagner
28
Syracuse
33
P&R Line Syracuse -5
P&R Total O/U 60.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Syracuse -54 · O/U 62.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
76%
Syracuse wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Syracuse -54
O/U 62.5
consensus
🏠 Syracuse 3rd straight Home Game 🛋 Wagner Coming off BYE
Wagner 2022 Schedule
Wagner's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/10Wagner at Rutgers+48.5L7–6655.5L7–66ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/1Wagner at Syracuse+54.0L0–5962.5L0–59UN
Syracuse 2022 Schedule
Syracuse's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Syracuse vs Louisville+6.0W31–755.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/10Syracuse at UConn-23.5W48–1449.5W48–14OY
Sat 9/17Syracuse vs Purdue-1.5W32–2959.5W32–29OY
Fri 9/23Syracuse vs Virginia-9.5W22–2053.5W22–20UN
Sat 10/1Syracuse vs Wagner-54.0W59–062.5W59–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/15Syracuse vs NC State-3.0W24–942.5W24–9UY
Sat 10/22Syracuse at Clemson+14.0L21–2750.0L21–27UY
Sat 10/29Syracuse vs Notre Dame-1.0L24–4148.0L24–41ON
Sat 11/5Syracuse at Pittsburgh+3.5L9–1947.5L9–19UN
Sat 11/12Syracuse vs Florida State+7.5L3–3851.0L3–38UN
Sat 11/19Syracuse at Wake Forest+9.5L35–4558.5L35–45ON
Sat 11/26Syracuse at Boston College-10.5W32–2347.0W32–23ON
Thu 12/29Syracuse vs Minnesota+10.5L20–2845.0L20–28OY
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Wagner Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Wagner
0.00
Syracuse #108
0.55
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Wagner
0.00
Syracuse #30
0.73
Wagner +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Syracuse Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Wagner #135
2.4
Syracuse #93
32.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Wagner #136
93.4
Syracuse #90
50.8
Syracuse +29.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself