Sun, Nov 27 2022
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Alumni Stadium
Chestnut Hill, MA
·
Turf
·
44,500 cap
Syracuse✈ 257 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Syracuse
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Syracuse entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Syracuse wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Syracuse wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Syracuse -10.5
O/U 47.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Syracuse
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Syracuse 2022 Schedule
Syracuse's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Syracuse vs Louisville | +6.0W31–7 | 55.0 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Syracuse at UConn | -23.5W48–14 | 49.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Syracuse vs Purdue | -1.5W32–29 | 59.5 | W32–29 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/23 | Syracuse vs Virginia | -9.5W22–20 | 53.5 | W22–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Syracuse vs Wagner | -54.0W59–0 | 62.5 | W59–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Syracuse vs NC State | -3.0W24–9 | 42.5 | W24–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Syracuse at Clemson | +14.0L21–27 | 50.0 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Syracuse vs Notre Dame | -1.0L24–41 | 48.0 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Syracuse at Pittsburgh | +3.5L9–19 | 47.5 | L9–19 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Syracuse vs Florida State | +7.5L3–38 | 51.0 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Syracuse at Wake Forest | +9.5L35–45 | 58.5 | L35–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Syracuse at Boston College | -10.5W32–23 | 47.0 | W32–23 | O | N |
| Thu 12/29 | Syracuse vs Minnesota | +10.5L20–28 | 45.0 | L20–28 | O | Y |
Boston College 2022 Schedule
Boston College's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Boston College vs Rutgers | -8.5L21–22 | 47.0 | L21–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Boston College at Virginia Tech | +2.5L10–27 | 45.0 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Boston College vs Maine | -31.0W38–17 | 48.0 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Boston College at Florida State | +18.5L14–44 | 48.5 | L14–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Boston College vs Louisville | +13.5W34–33 | 48.5 | W34–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Boston College vs Clemson | +21.0L3–31 | 49.0 | L3–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Boston College at Wake Forest | +20.0L15–43 | 60.0 | L15–43 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Boston College at UConn | -8.0L3–13 | 44.0 | L3–13 | U | N |
| Fri 11/4 | Boston College vs Duke | +11.5L31–38 | 47.0 | L31–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Boston College at NC State | +18.0W21–20 | 41.0 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Boston College at Notre Dame | +20.0L0–44 | 42.0 | L0–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Boston College vs Syracuse | +10.5L23–32 | 47.0 | L23–32 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Syracuse
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Syracuse Edge
Syracuse +0.70
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Syracuse Edge
Syracuse +30.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Syracuse
1 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Boston College
40.4 — 31.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Syracuse won by 9
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Syracuse with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Syracuse
Dino Babers #1
29–43 (40%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Robert Anae
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tony White
Yr 2
#1
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
11–11 (50%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
John McNulty
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tem Lukabu
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓