Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
SMU
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
SMU entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
SMU wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
SMU wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
SMU -48.5
O/U 66.0
consensus
Lamar 2022 Schedule
Lamar's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Lamar at SMU | +48.5L16–45 | 66.0 | L16–45 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Lamar at New Mexico State | +22.0L14–51 | 48.5 | L14–51 | O | N |
SMU 2022 Schedule
SMU's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | SMU at North Texas | -9.5W48–10 | 67.5 | W48–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | SMU vs Lamar | -48.5W45–16 | 66.0 | W45–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | SMU at Maryland | +3.0L27–34 | 74.0 | L27–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | SMU vs TCU | +2.5L34–42 | 72.0 | L34–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/5 | SMU at UCF | +3.0L19–41 | 65.0 | L19–41 | U | N |
| Fri 10/14 | SMU vs Navy | -12.5W40–34 | 59.0 | W40–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | SMU vs Cincinnati | +3.5L27–29 | 59.5 | L27–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | SMU at Tulsa | -1.0W45–34 | 63.5 | W45–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | SMU vs Houston | -3.5W77–63 | 66.0 | W77–63 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | SMU at South Florida | -17.5W41–23 | 72.5 | W41–23 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/17 | SMU at Tulane | +3.5L24–59 | 65.0 | L24–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | SMU vs Memphis | -4.5W34–31 | 69.0 | W34–31 | U | N |
| Sat 12/17 | SMU vs BYU | -4.5L23–24 | 65.0 | L23–24 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
SMU Edge
SMU +1.83
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
SMU Edge
SMU +61.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓