Fri, Dec 30 2022
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 EverBank Field
Jacksonville, FL
·
Turf
·
67,246 cap
Notre Dame✈ 826 miSame TZ
South Carolina✈ 254 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Notre Dame
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Notre Dame entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Notre Dame wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Notre Dame wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Notre Dame -5
O/U 50.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Notre Dame
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Notre Dame 2022 Schedule
Notre Dame's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Notre Dame at Ohio State | +17.0L10–21 | 58.5 | L10–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Notre Dame vs Marshall | -20.5L21–26 | 48.0 | L21–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Notre Dame vs California | -13.5W24–17 | 41.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Notre Dame at North Carolina | +2.5W45–32 | 55.0 | W45–32 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Notre Dame vs BYU | -4.0W28–20 | 51.0 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Notre Dame vs Stanford | -16.5L14–16 | 53.5 | L14–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Notre Dame vs UNLV | -26.0W44–21 | 46.5 | W44–21 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Notre Dame at Syracuse | +1.0W41–24 | 48.0 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Notre Dame vs Clemson | +3.5W35–14 | 43.5 | W35–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Notre Dame vs Navy | -17.0W35–32 | 40.5 | W35–32 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Notre Dame vs Boston College | -20.0W44–0 | 42.0 | W44–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Notre Dame at USC | +4.0L27–38 | 63.5 | L27–38 | O | N |
| Fri 12/30 | Notre Dame vs South Carolina | -5.0W45–38 | 50.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
South Carolina 2022 Schedule
South Carolina's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | South Carolina vs Georgia State | -12.5W35–14 | 55.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | South Carolina at Arkansas | +9.0L30–44 | 56.0 | L30–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | South Carolina vs Georgia | +25.5L7–48 | 56.0 | L7–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | South Carolina vs Charlotte | -23.5W56–20 | 66.5 | W56–20 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/29 | South Carolina vs South Carolina State | -40.5W50–10 | 57.0 | W50–10 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | South Carolina at Kentucky | +4.0W24–14 | 45.0 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | South Carolina vs Texas A&M | +3.0W30–24 | 44.5 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | South Carolina vs Missouri | -3.5L10–23 | 45.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | South Carolina at Vanderbilt | -6.5W38–27 | 49.0 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | South Carolina at Florida | +8.0L6–38 | 58.0 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | South Carolina vs Tennessee | +22.5W63–38 | 66.5 | W63–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | South Carolina at Clemson | +14.0W31–30 | 53.0 | W31–30 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/30 | South Carolina vs Notre Dame | +5.0L38–45 | 50.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Notre Dame
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +16.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Notre Dame with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman #1
0–1 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tommy Rees
Yr 2
#1
DC
Al Golden
Yr 1
#1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
7–6 (54%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Marcus Satterfield
Yr 2
#1
DC
Clayton White
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓