Sat, Sep 24 2022
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Williams-Brice Stadium
Columbia, SC
·
Turf
·
80,250 cap
Charlotte✈ 93 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
South Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
South Carolina -23.5
O/U 66.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → South Carolina
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Charlotte 2022 Schedule
Charlotte's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Charlotte at Florida Atlantic | +7.0L13–43 | 60.0 | L13–43 | U | N |
| Fri 9/2 | Charlotte vs William & Mary | -4.5L24–41 | 52.0 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Charlotte vs Maryland | +28.0L21–56 | 65.0 | L21–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Charlotte at Georgia State | +19.5W42–41 | 64.0 | W42–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Charlotte at South Carolina | +23.5L20–56 | 66.5 | L20–56 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Charlotte vs UTEP | +3.5L35–41 | 56.0 | L35–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Charlotte at UAB | +21.5L20–34 | 65.0 | L20–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Charlotte vs Florida International | -14.0L15–34 | 63.5 | L15–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Charlotte at Rice | +15.0W56–23 | 61.0 | W56–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Charlotte vs Western Kentucky | +14.5L7–59 | 72.5 | L7–59 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Charlotte at Middle Tennessee | +10.0L14–24 | 67.0 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Charlotte vs Louisiana Tech | +2.0W26–21 | 66.5 | W26–21 | U | Y |
South Carolina 2022 Schedule
South Carolina's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | South Carolina vs Georgia State | -12.5W35–14 | 55.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | South Carolina at Arkansas | +9.0L30–44 | 56.0 | L30–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | South Carolina vs Georgia | +25.5L7–48 | 56.0 | L7–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | South Carolina vs Charlotte | -23.5W56–20 | 66.5 | W56–20 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/29 | South Carolina vs South Carolina State | -40.5W50–10 | 57.0 | W50–10 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | South Carolina at Kentucky | +4.0W24–14 | 45.0 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | South Carolina vs Texas A&M | +3.0W30–24 | 44.5 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | South Carolina vs Missouri | -3.5L10–23 | 45.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | South Carolina at Vanderbilt | -6.5W38–27 | 49.0 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | South Carolina at Florida | +8.0L6–38 | 58.0 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | South Carolina vs Tennessee | +22.5W63–38 | 66.5 | W63–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | South Carolina at Clemson | +14.0W31–30 | 53.0 | W31–30 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/30 | South Carolina vs Notre Dame | +5.0L38–45 | 50.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Charlotte +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Carolina Edge
South Carolina +15.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Carolina
5 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
South Carolina
87.4 — 5.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
South Carolina won by 36
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Carolina with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Charlotte
Will Healy #1
14–17 (45%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Mark Carney
Yr 2
#1
DC
Greg Brown
Yr 1
#1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
7–6 (54%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Marcus Satterfield
Yr 2
#1
DC
Clayton White
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓