Tue, Sep 7 2021
·
Week 1
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
71,000 cap
Louisville✈ 316 miSame TZ
Ole Miss✈ 296 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -9
O/U 74.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Louisville 2021 Schedule
Louisville's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/6 | Louisville vs Ole Miss | +9.0L24–43 | 74.5 | L24–43 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky | -30.0W30–3 | 62.5 | W30–3 | U | N |
| Fri 9/17 | Louisville vs UCF | +7.0W42–35 | 67.5 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Louisville at Florida State | +1.5W31–23 | 61.0 | W31–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Louisville at Wake Forest | +7.0L34–37 | 64.5 | L34–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Louisville vs Virginia | -2.5L33–34 | 69.5 | L33–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Louisville vs Boston College | -4.0W28–14 | 57.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Louisville at NC State | +6.0L13–28 | 57.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Louisville vs Clemson | +3.5L24–30 | 46.0 | L24–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Louisville vs Syracuse | -3.0W41–3 | 55.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/18 | Louisville at Duke | -20.0W62–22 | 60.0 | W62–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Louisville vs Kentucky | -3.0L21–52 | 58.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
| Tue 12/28 | Louisville vs Air Force | +1.0L28–31 | 55.0 | L28–31 | O | N |
Ole Miss 2021 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/6 | Ole Miss vs Louisville | -9.0W43–24 | 74.5 | W43–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Ole Miss vs Austin Peay | -37.0W54–17 | 69.5 | W54–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Ole Miss vs Tulane | -14.0W61–21 | 77.0 | W61–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | Ole Miss at Alabama | +15.0L21–42 | 79.5 | L21–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Ole Miss vs Arkansas | -5.0W52–51 | 67.0 | W52–51 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Ole Miss at Tennessee | -1.0W31–26 | 82.0 | W31–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Ole Miss vs LSU | -9.0W31–17 | 76.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Ole Miss at Auburn | +3.0L20–31 | 67.5 | L20–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Ole Miss vs Liberty | -7.5W27–14 | 66.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Ole Miss vs Texas A&M | +1.0W29–19 | 57.5 | W29–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt | -35.5W31–17 | 66.5 | W31–17 | U | N |
| Thu 11/25 | Ole Miss at Mississippi State | +2.5W31–21 | 65.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Ole Miss vs Baylor | -1.0L7–21 | 60.5 | L7–21 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ole Miss
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ole Miss
78.5 — 10.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Ole Miss won by 19
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ole Miss, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisville
Scott Satterfield #1
14–13 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Scott Satterfield
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bryan Brown
Yr 1
#1
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Durkin
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓