Sat, Sep 11 2021
·
Week 2
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🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Louisville, KY
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
Eastern Kentucky✈ 86 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Louisville -30
O/U 62.5
consensus
Eastern Kentucky 2021 Schedule
Eastern Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/11 | Eastern Kentucky at Louisville | +30.0L3–30 | 62.5 | L3–30 | U | Y |
Louisville 2021 Schedule
Louisville's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/6 | Louisville vs Ole Miss | +9.0L24–43 | 74.5 | L24–43 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky | -30.0W30–3 | 62.5 | W30–3 | U | N |
| Fri 9/17 | Louisville vs UCF | +7.0W42–35 | 67.5 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Louisville at Florida State | +1.5W31–23 | 61.0 | W31–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Louisville at Wake Forest | +7.0L34–37 | 64.5 | L34–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Louisville vs Virginia | -2.5L33–34 | 69.5 | L33–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Louisville vs Boston College | -4.0W28–14 | 57.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Louisville at NC State | +6.0L13–28 | 57.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Louisville vs Clemson | +3.5L24–30 | 46.0 | L24–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Louisville vs Syracuse | -3.0W41–3 | 55.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/18 | Louisville at Duke | -20.0W62–22 | 60.0 | W62–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Louisville vs Kentucky | -3.0L21–52 | 58.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
| Tue 12/28 | Louisville vs Air Force | +1.0L28–31 | 55.0 | L28–31 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Kentucky Edge
Eastern Kentucky +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Eastern Kentucky Edge
Eastern Kentucky +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisville
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Louisville
96.0 — 0.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Louisville won by 27
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisville, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓