Sun, Sep 12 2021
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, AZ
·
Turf
·
56,232 cap
UNLV✈ 262 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Arizona State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -34.5
O/U 55.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arizona State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UNLV 2021 Schedule
UNLV's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | UNLV vs Eastern Washington | +2.0L33–35 | 66.0 | L33–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | UNLV at Arizona State | +34.5L10–37 | 55.5 | L10–37 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | UNLV vs Iowa State | +32.0L3–48 | 53.0 | L3–48 | U | N |
| Fri 9/24 | UNLV at Fresno State | +30.0L30–38 | 59.0 | L30–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | UNLV at UTSA | +21.5L17–24 | 55.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | UNLV vs Utah State | +7.5L24–28 | 64.0 | L24–28 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/21 | UNLV vs San José State | +6.0L20–27 | 44.0 | L20–27 | O | N |
| Fri 10/29 | UNLV at Nevada | +19.0L20–51 | 58.0 | L20–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | UNLV at New Mexico | +1.5W31–17 | 45.0 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | UNLV vs Hawai'i | +3.5W27–13 | 55.5 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | UNLV vs San Diego State | +11.0L20–28 | 41.0 | L20–28 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | UNLV at Air Force | +18.5L14–48 | 49.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
Arizona State 2021 Schedule
Arizona State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Arizona State vs Southern Utah | -44.5W41–14 | 56.5 | W41–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Arizona State vs UNLV | -34.5W37–10 | 55.5 | W37–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Arizona State at BYU | -3.5L17–27 | 50.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Arizona State vs Colorado | -13.5W35–13 | 45.5 | W35–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Arizona State at UCLA | +3.0W42–23 | 56.5 | W42–23 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/8 | Arizona State vs Stanford | -13.5W28–10 | 53.5 | W28–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Arizona State at Utah | +1.0L21–35 | 51.0 | L21–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Arizona State vs Washington State | -16.5L21–34 | 55.5 | L21–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Arizona State vs USC | -10.0W31–16 | 61.0 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Arizona State at Washington | -6.0W35–30 | 45.5 | W35–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Arizona State at Oregon State | -2.5L10–24 | 59.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Arizona State vs Arizona | -20.0W38–15 | 52.5 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/30 | Arizona State vs Wisconsin | +8.5L13–20 | 42.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arizona State Edge
Arizona State +83.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arizona State
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arizona State
87.4 — 4.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arizona State won by 27
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arizona State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UNLV
Marcus Arroyo #1
0–9 (0%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Glenn Thomas
Yr 1
#1
DC
Peter Hansen
Yr 1
#1
Arizona State
Herm Edwards #1
19–14 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Zak Hill
Yr 1
#1
DC
Antonio Pierce
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓