Sun, Oct 3 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Aloha Stadium
Honolulu, HI
·
Turf
·
50,000 cap
Fresno State✈ 2,517 mi-3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Fresno State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Fresno State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Fresno State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -10.5
O/U 64.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Fresno State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Fresno State 2021 Schedule
Fresno State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | Fresno State vs UConn | -28.0W45–0 | 63.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/4 | Fresno State at Oregon | +18.0L24–31 | 62.5 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Fresno State vs Cal Poly | -32.5W63–10 | 59.5 | W63–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Fresno State at UCLA | +11.0W40–37 | 64.0 | W40–37 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/24 | Fresno State vs UNLV | -30.0W38–30 | 59.0 | W38–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Fresno State at Hawai'i | -10.5L24–27 | 64.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Fresno State at Wyoming | -3.0W17–0 | 53.5 | W17–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Fresno State vs Nevada | -3.5W34–32 | 64.5 | W34–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Fresno State at San Diego State | -2.0W30–20 | 43.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Fresno State vs Boise State | -4.0L14–40 | 61.5 | L14–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Fresno State vs New Mexico | -24.0W34–7 | 51.0 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/25 | Fresno State at San José State | -7.0W40–9 | 52.5 | W40–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/18 | Fresno State vs UTEP | -11.5W31–24 | 51.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
Hawai'i 2021 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | Hawai'i at UCLA | +17.5L10–44 | 67.0 | L10–44 | U | N |
| Sat 9/4 | Hawai'i vs Portland State | -26.0W49–35 | 57.5 | W49–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Hawai'i at Oregon State | +11.0L27–45 | 65.0 | L27–45 | O | N |
| Sun 9/19 | Hawai'i vs San José State | +8.0L13–17 | 62.5 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Hawai'i at New Mexico State | -17.0W41–21 | 63.0 | W41–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Hawai'i vs Fresno State | +10.5W27–24 | 64.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Hawai'i at Nevada | +14.0L17–34 | 61.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico State | -18.0W48–34 | 62.5 | W48–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Hawai'i at Utah State | +3.5L31–51 | 66.0 | L31–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Hawai'i vs San Diego State | +7.0L10–17 | 45.0 | L10–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Hawai'i at UNLV | -3.5L13–27 | 55.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Hawai'i vs Colorado State | +3.0W50–45 | 54.0 | W50–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Hawai'i at Wyoming | +13.0W38–14 | 48.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/24 | Hawai'i vs Memphis | +10.0 | 56.0 | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Fresno State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +22.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Hawai'i
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Fresno State
18.5 — 65.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Hawai'i won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Fresno State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Kalen DeBoer #1
6–4 (60%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Ryan Grubb
Yr 1
#1
DC
William Inge
Yr 1
#1
Hawai'i
Todd Graham #1
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Bo Graham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Graham
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓