Sun, Oct 31 2021
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Stanford Stadium
Stanford, CA
·
Turf
·
50,424 cap
Washington✈ 705 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Washington
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Washington entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Washington wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Washington wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Stanford -2.5
O/U 45.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Washington
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Washington 2021 Schedule
Washington's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Washington vs Montana | -22.5L7–13 | 54.0 | L7–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Washington at Michigan | +6.5L10–31 | 47.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Washington vs Arkansas State | -17.5W52–3 | 58.5 | W52–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Washington vs California | -7.5W31–24 | 47.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Washington at Oregon State | +2.5L24–27 | 57.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Washington vs UCLA | -1.5L17–24 | 55.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/22 | Washington at Arizona | -17.5W21–16 | 45.5 | W21–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Washington at Stanford | +2.5W20–13 | 45.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Washington vs Oregon | +7.0L16–26 | 48.0 | L16–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Washington vs Arizona State | +6.0L30–35 | 45.5 | L30–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Washington at Colorado | -6.5L17–20 | 43.0 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Washington vs Washington State | -1.0L13–40 | 45.0 | L13–40 | O | N |
Stanford 2021 Schedule
Stanford's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Stanford vs Kansas State | +3.0L7–24 | 54.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Stanford at USC | +17.0W42–28 | 53.0 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Stanford at Vanderbilt | -13.0W41–23 | 49.0 | W41–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Stanford vs UCLA | +4.0L24–35 | 60.5 | L24–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Stanford vs Oregon | +8.5W31–24 | 57.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/8 | Stanford at Arizona State | +13.5L10–28 | 53.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Stanford at Washington State | +1.0L31–34 | 53.0 | L31–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Stanford vs Washington | -2.5L13–20 | 45.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/5 | Stanford vs Utah | +10.0L7–52 | 52.0 | L7–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Stanford at Oregon State | +12.5L14–35 | 56.5 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Stanford vs California | +2.5L11–41 | 46.0 | L11–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Stanford vs Notre Dame | +20.5L14–45 | 53.0 | L14–45 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Washington
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Washington
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington Edge
Washington +0.02
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington Edge
Washington +14.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Washington
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Washington
26.7 — 45.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Washington won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington
Jimmy Lake #1
4–3 (57%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
John Donovan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ikaika Malloe
Yr 1
#1
Stanford
David Shaw #1
92–37 (71%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Tavita Pritchard
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lance Anderson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓