Sat, Oct 16 2021
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Martin Stadium
Pullman, WA
·
Turf
·
32,248 cap
Stanford✈ 691 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Stanford,
while Game Control favors Washington State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Stanford wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Washington State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Washington State -1
O/U 53.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Washington State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Stanford 2021 Schedule
Stanford's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Stanford vs Kansas State | +3.0L7–24 | 54.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Stanford at USC | +17.0W42–28 | 53.0 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Stanford at Vanderbilt | -13.0W41–23 | 49.0 | W41–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Stanford vs UCLA | +4.0L24–35 | 60.5 | L24–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Stanford vs Oregon | +8.5W31–24 | 57.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/8 | Stanford at Arizona State | +13.5L10–28 | 53.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Stanford at Washington State | +1.0L31–34 | 53.0 | L31–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Stanford vs Washington | -2.5L13–20 | 45.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/5 | Stanford vs Utah | +10.0L7–52 | 52.0 | L7–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Stanford at Oregon State | +12.5L14–35 | 56.5 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Stanford vs California | +2.5L11–41 | 46.0 | L11–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Stanford vs Notre Dame | +20.5L14–45 | 53.0 | L14–45 | O | N |
Washington State 2021 Schedule
Washington State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Washington State vs Utah State | -17.5L23–26 | 66.5 | L23–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Washington State vs Portland State | -31.0W44–24 | 65.5 | W44–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Washington State vs USC | +7.0L14–45 | 61.0 | L14–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Washington State at Utah | +15.0L13–24 | 53.5 | L13–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Washington State at California | +7.5W21–6 | 52.5 | W21–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Washington State vs Oregon State | +4.0W31–24 | 59.0 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Washington State vs Stanford | -1.0W34–31 | 53.0 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Washington State vs BYU | +3.5L19–21 | 56.5 | L19–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Washington State at Arizona State | +16.5W34–21 | 55.5 | W34–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Washington State at Oregon | +13.0L24–38 | 58.0 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Fri 11/19 | Washington State vs Arizona | -15.0W44–18 | 52.5 | W44–18 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Washington State at Washington | +1.0W40–13 | 45.0 | W40–13 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Washington State vs Central Michigan | -5.5L21–24 | 56.0 | L21–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Washington State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Washington State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Stanford Edge
Stanford +0.23
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +18.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Stanford
1 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Stanford
35.5 — 43.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Washington State won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Stanford
David Shaw #1
92–37 (71%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Tavita Pritchard
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lance Anderson
Yr 1
#1
Washington State
Nick Rolovich #1
2–5 (29%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Craig Stutzmann
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jake Dickert
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓