Sat, Oct 23 2021
·
Week 8
·
🏟 California Memorial Stadium
Berkeley, CA
·
Turf
·
62,717 cap
Colorado✈ 923 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors California,
while Game Control favors Colorado.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
California wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Colorado wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
California -8
O/U 44.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → California
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Colorado 2021 Schedule
Colorado's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Colorado vs Northern Colorado | -37.5W35–7 | 56.5 | W35–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Colorado vs Texas A&M | +17.5L7–10 | 51.0 | L7–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Colorado vs Minnesota | -2.5L0–30 | 49.0 | L0–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Colorado at Arizona State | +13.5L13–35 | 45.5 | L13–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Colorado vs USC | +9.0L14–37 | 50.5 | L14–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Colorado vs Arizona | -6.0W34–0 | 46.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Colorado at California | +8.0L3–26 | 44.0 | L3–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Colorado at Oregon | +24.5L29–52 | 49.0 | L29–52 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Colorado vs Oregon State | +11.5W37–34 | 55.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Colorado at UCLA | +18.0L20–44 | 57.5 | L20–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Colorado vs Washington | +6.5W20–17 | 43.0 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Colorado at Utah | +24.0L13–28 | 52.5 | L13–28 | U | Y |
California 2021 Schedule
California's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | California vs Nevada | -2.5L17–22 | 52.5 | L17–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | California at TCU | +11.5L32–34 | 46.5 | L32–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | California vs Sacramento State | -24.5W42–30 | 49.0 | W42–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | California at Washington | +7.5L24–31 | 47.5 | L24–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | California vs Washington State | -7.5L6–21 | 52.5 | L6–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/15 | California at Oregon | +13.5L17–24 | 53.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | California vs Colorado | -8.0W26–3 | 44.0 | W26–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | California vs Oregon State | +2.5W39–25 | 56.5 | W39–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | California at Arizona | -7.0L3–10 | 47.0 | L3–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | California vs USC | +2.0 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/20 | California at Stanford | -2.5W41–11 | 46.0 | W41–11 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | California at UCLA | +6.5L14–42 | 58.5 | L14–42 | U | N |
| Sat 12/4 | California vs USC | -4.5W24–14 | 57.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ California
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ California
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ California
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
California Edge
California +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Colorado Edge
Colorado +4.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
California
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
California
94.6 — 3.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
California won by 23
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Colorado
Karl Dorrell #1
5–4 (56%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Darrin Chiaverini
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chris Wilson
Yr 1
#1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
22–23 (49%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Bill Musgrave
Yr 1
#1
DC
Peter Sirmon
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓