Wisconsin at Arizona State Week 1 College Football Matchup Wisconsin at Arizona State Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Dec 31 2021 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas, NV · Turf · 65,000 cap
Wisconsin✈ 1,035 mi-2 hr TZ Arizona State✈ 2,416 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
20 13
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Wisconsin
26
Arizona State
18
P&R Line Wisconsin -8.5
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Wisconsin -8.5 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
Wisconsin has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Wisconsin entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Wisconsin wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Wisconsin wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Wisconsin -8.5
O/U 42.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Arizona State 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Wisconsin 2nd straight Road Game
Wisconsin 2021 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Wisconsin vs Penn State-5.5L10–1648.5L10–16UN
Sat 9/11Wisconsin vs Eastern Michigan-26.0W34–752.0W34–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/25Wisconsin vs Notre Dame-6.0L13–4143.5L13–41ON
Sat 10/2Wisconsin vs Michigan-2.0L17–3843.5L17–38ON
Sat 10/9Wisconsin at Illinois-12.5W24–042.0W24–0UY
Sat 10/16Wisconsin vs Army-14.0W20–1437.5W20–14UN
Sat 10/23Wisconsin at Purdue-3.5W30–1341.0W30–13OY
Sat 10/30Wisconsin vs Iowa-3.0W27–735.5W27–7UY
Sat 11/6Wisconsin at Rutgers-13.0W52–337.5W52–3OY
Sat 11/13Wisconsin vs Northwestern-26.0W35–741.5W35–7OY
Sat 11/20Wisconsin vs Nebraska-10.0W35–2843.5W35–28ON
Sat 11/27Wisconsin at Minnesota-7.0L13–2339.0L13–23UN
Thu 12/30Wisconsin vs Arizona State-8.5W20–1342.5W20–13UN
Arizona State 2021 Schedule
Arizona State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Arizona State vs Southern Utah-44.5W41–1456.5W41–14UN
Sat 9/11Arizona State vs UNLV-34.5W37–1055.5W37–10UN
Sat 9/18Arizona State at BYU-3.5L17–2750.5L17–27UN
Sat 9/25Arizona State vs Colorado-13.5W35–1345.5W35–13OY
Sat 10/2Arizona State at UCLA+3.0W42–2356.5W42–23OY
Fri 10/8Arizona State vs Stanford-13.5W28–1053.5W28–10UY
Sat 10/16Arizona State at Utah+1.0L21–3551.0L21–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Arizona State vs Washington State-16.5L21–3455.5L21–34UN
Sat 11/6Arizona State vs USC-10.0W31–1661.0W31–16UY
Sat 11/13Arizona State at Washington-6.0W35–3045.5W35–30ON
Sat 11/20Arizona State at Oregon State-2.5L10–2459.0L10–24UN
Sat 11/27Arizona State vs Arizona-20.0W38–1552.5W38–15OY
Thu 12/30Arizona State vs Wisconsin+8.5L13–2042.5L13–20UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Wisconsin
+0.264
Arizona State
+0.336
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Wisconsin
+0.286
Arizona State
+0.354
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Wisconsin
0.213
Arizona State
0.174
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Wisconsin Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Wisconsin
+6.496
Arizona State
+7.113
Arizona State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Wisconsin
+0.845
Arizona State
+0.823
Wisconsin Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Wisconsin
70.4
Arizona State
71.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Wisconsin Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Wisconsin
0.3
Arizona State
7.3
Offense Rating
Wisconsin
15.1
Arizona State
21.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Wisconsin
14.8
Arizona State
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Wisconsin Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Wisconsin #103
0.92
Arizona State #80
0.91
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Wisconsin #15
0.42
Arizona State #93
1.27
Wisconsin +0.01
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Wisconsin Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Wisconsin #1
66.5
Arizona State #1
57.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Wisconsin #11
19.2
Arizona State #53
30.7
Wisconsin +9.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Wisconsin. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Wisconsin
Paul Chryst #1
57–20 (74%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Joe Rudolph Yr 1 #1
DC Jim Leonhard Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona State
Herm Edwards #1
19–14 (58%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Zak Hill Yr 1 #1
DC Antonio Pierce Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself