Matchup Prediction
Maryland
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Maryland entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Maryland wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Maryland wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Maryland -3.5
O/U 48.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Maryland
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Indiana 2021 Schedule
Indiana's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Indiana at Iowa | +3.5L6–34 | 45.5 | L6–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Indiana vs Idaho | -31.5W56–14 | 52.5 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Indiana vs Cincinnati | +4.0L24–38 | 50.0 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Indiana at Western Kentucky | -9.5W33–31 | 62.5 | W33–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Indiana at Penn State | +12.0L0–24 | 54.5 | L0–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Indiana vs Michigan State | +3.5L15–20 | 48.5 | L15–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Indiana vs Ohio State | +21.0L7–54 | 59.0 | L7–54 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Indiana at Maryland | +3.5L35–38 | 48.0 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Indiana at Michigan | +20.5L7–29 | 51.0 | L7–29 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Indiana vs Rutgers | -6.5L3–38 | 42.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Indiana vs Minnesota | +7.5L14–35 | 43.0 | L14–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Indiana at Purdue | +18.0L7–44 | 50.5 | L7–44 | O | N |
Maryland 2021 Schedule
Maryland's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Maryland vs West Virginia | +2.5W30–24 | 56.0 | W30–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Maryland vs Howard | -48.5W62–0 | 56.0 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/17 | Maryland at Illinois | -7.0W20–17 | 61.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Maryland vs Kent State | -13.0W37–16 | 71.5 | W37–16 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/1 | Maryland vs Iowa | +3.0L14–51 | 47.5 | L14–51 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Maryland at Ohio State | +22.0L17–66 | 71.5 | L17–66 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Maryland at Minnesota | +4.0L16–34 | 53.0 | L16–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Maryland vs Indiana | -3.5W38–35 | 48.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Maryland vs Penn State | +10.0L14–31 | 56.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Maryland at Michigan State | +11.5L21–40 | 60.0 | L21–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Maryland vs Michigan | +16.0L18–59 | 58.5 | L18–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Maryland at Rutgers | +2.0W40–16 | 53.0 | W40–16 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Maryland vs Virginia Tech | -4.0W54–10 | 55.0 | W54–10 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Maryland
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Maryland
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Maryland
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Maryland Edge
Maryland +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Maryland Edge
Maryland +6.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Maryland
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Maryland
81.8 — 9.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Maryland won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Maryland. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Indiana
Tom Allen #1
25–24 (51%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Nick Sheridan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Charlton Warren
Yr 1
#1
Maryland
Mike Locksley #1
9–17 (35%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Dan Enos
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Williams
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓