Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Rice,
while Game Control favors Charlotte.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Rice wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Charlotte wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Charlotte -6.5
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Charlotte
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Rice 2021 Schedule
Rice's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Rice at Arkansas | +19.5L17–38 | 50.0 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Rice vs Houston | +7.5L7–44 | 50.0 | L7–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Rice at Texas | +26.0L0–58 | 52.0 | L0–58 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Rice vs Texas Southern | -37.0W48–34 | 53.5 | W48–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Rice vs Southern Miss | -1.5W24–19 | 45.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Rice at UTSA | +17.0L0–45 | 53.0 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Rice at UAB | +23.5W30–24 | 44.5 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Rice vs North Texas | -1.5L24–30 | 55.0 | L24–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Rice at Charlotte | +6.5L24–31 | 51.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Rice vs Western Kentucky | +19.0L21–42 | 61.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Rice at UTEP | +9.0L28–38 | 47.0 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Rice vs Louisiana Tech | +3.5W35–31 | 52.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
Charlotte 2021 Schedule
Charlotte's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Charlotte vs Duke | +6.0W31–28 | 60.0 | W31–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Charlotte vs Gardner-Webb | -23.0W38–10 | 58.0 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Charlotte at Georgia State | +4.5L9–20 | 62.5 | L9–20 | U | N |
| Fri 9/24 | Charlotte vs Middle Tennessee | -2.5W42–39 | 55.5 | W42–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Charlotte at Illinois | +10.0L14–24 | 54.0 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/8 | Charlotte at Florida International | -3.5W45–33 | 61.0 | W45–33 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/21 | Charlotte vs Florida Atlantic | +6.5L9–38 | 58.0 | L9–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Charlotte at Western Kentucky | +19.5L13–45 | 71.5 | L13–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Charlotte vs Rice | -6.5W31–24 | 51.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Charlotte at Louisiana Tech | +7.0L32–42 | 58.0 | L32–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Charlotte vs Marshall | +14.0L28–49 | 62.0 | L28–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Charlotte at Old Dominion | +8.5L34–56 | 55.5 | L34–56 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Charlotte
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Rice Edge
Rice +0.05
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Charlotte Edge
Charlotte +6.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Rice
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Charlotte
50.3 — 34.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Charlotte won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Rice
Mike Bloomgren #1
7–26 (21%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Marques Tuiasosopo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Smith
Yr 1
#1
Charlotte
Will Healy #1
11–11 (50%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mark Carney
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brandon Cooper
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓