Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arkansas,
while Game Control favors Ole Miss.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arkansas wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Ole Miss wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -5
O/U 67.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arkansas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas 2021 Schedule
Arkansas's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Arkansas vs Rice | -19.5W38–17 | 50.0 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Arkansas vs Texas | +6.0W40–21 | 57.5 | W40–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Arkansas vs Georgia Southern | -23.0W45–10 | 53.5 | W45–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +4.5W20–10 | 47.0 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Arkansas at Georgia | +16.5L0–37 | 48.0 | L0–37 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Arkansas at Ole Miss | +5.0L51–52 | 67.0 | L51–52 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Arkansas vs Auburn | -4.5L23–38 | 54.0 | L23–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Arkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -50.5W45–3 | 59.5 | W45–3 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Arkansas vs Mississippi State | -4.0W31–28 | 54.0 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Arkansas at LSU | -3.0W16–13 | 59.5 | W16–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Arkansas at Alabama | +20.5L35–42 | 58.5 | L35–42 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Arkansas vs Missouri | -14.5W34–17 | 63.0 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Arkansas vs Penn State | -3.5W24–10 | 51.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
Ole Miss 2021 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/6 | Ole Miss vs Louisville | -9.0W43–24 | 74.5 | W43–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Ole Miss vs Austin Peay | -37.0W54–17 | 69.5 | W54–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Ole Miss vs Tulane | -14.0W61–21 | 77.0 | W61–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | Ole Miss at Alabama | +15.0L21–42 | 79.5 | L21–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Ole Miss vs Arkansas | -5.0W52–51 | 67.0 | W52–51 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Ole Miss at Tennessee | -1.0W31–26 | 82.0 | W31–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Ole Miss vs LSU | -9.0W31–17 | 76.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Ole Miss at Auburn | +3.0L20–31 | 67.5 | L20–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Ole Miss vs Liberty | -7.5W27–14 | 66.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Ole Miss vs Texas A&M | +1.0W29–19 | 57.5 | W29–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt | -35.5W31–17 | 66.5 | W31–17 | U | N |
| Thu 11/25 | Ole Miss at Mississippi State | +2.5W31–21 | 65.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Ole Miss vs Baylor | -1.0L7–21 | 60.5 | L7–21 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arkansas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arkansas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +1.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ole Miss
47.9 — 17.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ole Miss won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kendal Briles
Yr 1
#1
DC
Barry Odom
Yr 1
#1
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 1
#1
DC
D. J. Durkin
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓