Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Louisiana -14.5
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Rice 2025 Schedule
Rice's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Rice at Louisiana | +14.5W14–12 | 49.5 | W14–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Rice vs Houston | +13.5L9–35 | 38.5 | L9–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Rice vs Prairie View A&M | -29.5W38–17 | 48.5 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Thu 9/18 | Rice at Charlotte | -1.5W28–17 | 41.5 | W28–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Rice at Navy | +14.0L13–21 | 45.5 | L13–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Rice vs Florida Atlantic | -4.5L21–27 | 54.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Rice at UTSA | +8.5L13–61 | 48.5 | L13–61 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Rice vs UConn | +10.5W37–34 | 48.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/31 | Rice vs Memphis | +13.5L14–38 | 48.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Rice vs UAB | +1.5W24–17 | 51.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Rice vs North Texas | +18.5L24–56 | 57.0 | L24–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Rice at South Florida | +28.5L3–52 | 57.5 | L3–52 | U | N |
| Fri 1/2 | Rice vs Texas State | +19.5L10–41 | 55.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
Louisiana 2025 Schedule
Louisiana's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Louisiana vs Rice | -14.5L12–14 | 49.5 | L12–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Louisiana vs McNeese | -19.0W34–10 | 50.0 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Louisiana at Missouri | +27.5L10–52 | 47.5 | L10–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Louisiana at Eastern Michigan | -2.5L31–34 | 51.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Louisiana vs Marshall | +2.5W54–51 | 47.5 | W54–51 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Louisiana at James Madison | +18.5L14–24 | 44.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Louisiana vs Southern Miss | +4.5L10–22 | 54.5 | L10–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Louisiana at Troy | +7.0L23–35 | 47.5 | L23–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Louisiana at South Alabama | +3.5W31–22 | 52.5 | W31–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Louisiana vs Texas State | +3.5W42–39 | 62.5 | W42–39 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/20 | Louisiana at Arkansas State | +2.5W34–30 | 54.5 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Louisiana vs UL Monroe | -10.5W30–27 | 47.5 | W30–27 | O | N |
| Wed 12/17 | Louisiana vs Delaware | -1.5L13–20 | 60.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Rice Edge
Rice +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Rice Edge
Rice +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisiana, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Rice
Scott Abell #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Vince Munch
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jon Kay
Yr 1
#1
Louisiana
Michael Desormeaux #1
23–17 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Tim Leger
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jim Salgado
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓