Sat, Nov 18 2023
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Notre Dame Stadium
Notre Dame, IN
·
Turf
·
80,795 cap
Wake Forest✈ 501 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Notre Dame
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Notre Dame entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Notre Dame wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Notre Dame wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Notre Dame -22.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Notre Dame
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Wake Forest 2023 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Wake Forest vs Elon | -33.5W37–17 | 53.5 | W37–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt | -9.5W36–20 | 55.0 | W36–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Wake Forest at Old Dominion | -13.5W27–24 | 60.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech | -3.5L16–30 | 58.5 | L16–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Wake Forest at Clemson | +21.0L12–17 | 53.5 | L12–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Wake Forest at Virginia Tech | +1.5L13–30 | 48.5 | L13–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh | +3.0W21–17 | 45.0 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Wake Forest vs Florida State | +21.0L16–41 | 53.5 | L16–41 | O | N |
| Thu 11/2 | Wake Forest at Duke | +6.5L21–24 | 41.0 | L21–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Wake Forest vs NC State | -0.5L6–26 | 42.5 | L6–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Wake Forest at Notre Dame | +22.5L7–45 | 47.5 | L7–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Wake Forest at Syracuse | +3.0L31–35 | 43.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
Notre Dame 2023 Schedule
Notre Dame's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Notre Dame vs Navy | -20.5W42–3 | 49.0 | W42–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/2 | Notre Dame vs Tennessee State | -48.5W56–3 | 55.0 | W56–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Notre Dame at NC State | -7.0W45–24 | 49.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Notre Dame vs Central Michigan | -34.5W41–17 | 51.5 | W41–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Notre Dame vs Ohio State | +3.0L14–17 | 55.5 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Notre Dame at Duke | -5.5W21–14 | 52.5 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Notre Dame at Louisville | -6.5L20–33 | 53.0 | L20–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Notre Dame vs USC | -3.0W48–20 | 61.0 | W48–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh | -21.0W58–7 | 45.5 | W58–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Notre Dame at Clemson | -3.0L23–31 | 44.5 | L23–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/18 | Notre Dame vs Wake Forest | -22.5W45–7 | 47.5 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Notre Dame at Stanford | -26.0W56–23 | 50.5 | W56–23 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/29 | Notre Dame vs Oregon State | -5.5W40–8 | 40.5 | W40–8 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Notre Dame
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +33.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Notre Dame
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Notre Dame
69.2 — 10.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Notre Dame won by 38
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Notre Dame with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
62–53 (54%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Warren Ruggiero
Yr 3
#1
DC
Brad Lambert
Yr 2
#1
Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman #1
13–5 (72%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Gerad Parker
Yr 1
#1
DC
Al Golden
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓