Penn State at Illinois - 2018 Matchup Preview

(#2)Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini(#9)

Friday, September 21st 2018 (9:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -26.5 (61.0)
Penn State 63 - Illinois: 24 (Big Ten)

Nittany Lions (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 34 - 21 (35 - 21 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ILL 4th straight Home Game
ILL is playing their 4th straight game
PSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -11 (SP+ PSU -27)
Projected Score: PSU: 37 - ILL: 21 (58)
PSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
PSU Travel: 548 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Fighting Illini (4 - 8) (4 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 26 - 39 (25 - 40 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PSU Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Penn State's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Penn State vs App State	-24.0	54.0	W 45 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/8	Penn State at Pittsburgh	-7.5	51.0	W 51 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/15	Penn State vs Kent State	-35.0	64.5	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Fri 9/21	Penn State at Illinois	-26.5	61.0	W 63 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/29	Penn State vs Ohio State	+3.0	68.5	L 26 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/13	Penn State vs Michigan State	-13.5	53.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/20	Penn State at Indiana	-14.0	56.5	W 33 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/27	Penn State vs Iowa	-5.5	52.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/3	Penn State at Michigan	+13.5	48.0	L 7 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/10	Penn State vs Wisconsin	-7.5	52.0	W 22 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/17	Penn State at Rutgers	-28.5	52.5	W 20 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/24	Penn State vs Maryland	-12.0	51.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Tue 1/1	Penn State vs Kentucky	-4.5	47.5	L 24 - 27	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule

Illinois's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Illinois vs Kent State	-18.0	57.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/8	Illinois vs Western Illinois	-19.5
Sat 9/15	Illinois vs South Florida	+14.0	59.0	L 19 - 25	U	Y
Fri 9/21	Illinois vs Penn State	+26.5	61.0	L 24 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/6	Illinois at Rutgers	-4.5	50.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/13	Illinois vs Purdue	+10.5	62.0	L 7 - 46	U	N
Sat 10/20	Illinois at Wisconsin	+24.0	53.5	L 20 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/27	Illinois at Maryland	+16.5	56.0	L 33 - 63	O	N
Sat 11/3	Illinois vs Minnesota	+8.5	61.5	W 55 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/10	Illinois at Nebraska	+17.0	71.0	L 35 - 54	O	N
Sat 11/17	Illinois vs Iowa	+15.5	60.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
Sat 11/24	Illinois at Northwestern	+14.5	56.0	L 16 - 24	U	Y

Important Stats (2018)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	.15	45%	33.8	49%	3.35	205	38%	219	4.1	.07	38%	20.5	41%	34%	2.86	43.1	1.5	1.4
ILL	.19	45%	26	49%	3.21	244	36%	166	3.11	.34	50%	39.4	53%	46%	4.27	65.1	2	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)		52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)		39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)		45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)		50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5

Overall Stats 2018

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Offense	13	33.8	34.8	44.6%	4.1	1.5	21	423	205	219	5.1	53%	45%	49%	38%	16%	.15
ILL Defense	12	39.4	40.2	50.3%	4.27	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	53%	46%	16%	.34

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Defense	13	20.5	21.4	38.3%	2.86	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	34%	20%	.07
ILL Offense	12	26	25.2	45%	3.11	2	19	410	244	166	6	56%	41%	49%	36%	19%	.19

Additional Stats 2018

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Penn State	13	27:32	21.4	37%	53%	4.6	43.1	1.5	1.4	8.2	3.7	1	30.8
Illinois	12	28:33	19.4	35%	57%	6.3	65.1	2	1.7	5.6	1.8	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Offense	13	53%	49%	39.8	204.6	5.1	34	.25	3.35	87%	10%	1.02
ILL Defense	12	52%	53%	-	-	-	-	.31	3.6	90%	9%	1.03

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Defense	13	52%	41%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.72	69%	13%	1.02
ILL Offense	12	56%	49%	41.1	244.3	6	25	.28	3.21	71%	13%	1.14

Pass Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Offense	13	45%	38%	15.8	29.2	218.6	7.5	13.9	21	8	.06	1.4	32%	30%	.17	5%	1.6
ILL Defense	12	47%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.38	1.6	31%	37%	.36	7%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Defense	13	47%	34%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.05	1.5	35%	29%	.25	7%	1.7
ILL Offense	12	41%	36%	14.8	27.4	165.7	6	11.2	10	14	.09	1.6	31%	31%	.27	7%	1.8

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: NR
Penn State's Offense Rating: NR
Penn State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Penn State's 2018 Expected Record: -
Penn State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.0 #15
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #35
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: Illinois: -1.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 19.0 Illinois: -7.9

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: -1.45 NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Illinois's 2018 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.9 #97
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1 #69
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #115

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.4

Penn State's 2018 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 37
Illinois 21

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Penn State 37
Illinois 18

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Penn State 37
Illinois 23

Total Points: 60

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.2
Defense: 39.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 40.2

Illinois's 2018 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Penn State	21	Illinois	7	Penn State -19.5	Illinois	48.0	Under
2023	09/16	Illinois	13	Penn State	30	Penn State -14	Penn State	47.5	Under
2021	10/23	Penn State	18	Illinois	20	Penn State -24.5	Illinois	46.0	Under
2020	12/19	Penn State	56	Illinois	21	Penn State -16	Penn State	53.5	Over
2018	09/21	Illinois	24	Penn State	63	Penn State -26.5	Penn State	61.0	Over
2015	10/31	Penn State	39	Illinois	0	Penn State -4	Penn State	44.5	Under
2014	11/22	Illinois	16	Penn State	14	Penn State -4.5	Illinois	0
2013	11/02	Penn State	24	Illinois	17	Penn State -10	Illinois	0
2012	09/29	Illinois	7	Penn State	35
2011	10/29	Penn State	10	Illinois	7
2010	10/09	Penn State	13	Illinois	33
2009	10/03	Illinois	17	Penn State	35
2008	09/27	Penn State	38	Illinois	24
2007	09/29	Illinois	27	Penn State	20
2006	10/21	Penn State	26	Illinois	12
2005	10/22	Illinois	10	Penn State	63
2002	11/02	Penn State	18	Illinois	7
2001	11/10	Illinois	33	Penn State	28
2000	10/20	Penn State	39	Illinois	25

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	5	4	2 Overs
Penn State	14	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 7	3 - 5	2 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 12	5 - 3	2 - 1	3 - 2

(#) PSU at (#) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PSU	ILL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#15	#97
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#12	#58
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Penn State Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Penn State on Offense


CategoryCat	PSU Off	ILL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#35	#115
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Penn State Run Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Penn State Pass Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	PSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#69	#11
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Average G5

PSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 65° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Penn State 26.5 (61.0)
Penn State won at Illinois this year (63-24)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Illinois last year (21-7)
Penn State beat Illinois in 2023 (30-13)

PSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ILL's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD