Sat, Oct 3 2026
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Dix Stadium
Kent, OH
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Ohio✈ 132 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kent State,
while Game Control favors Ohio.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kent State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Ohio wins
Solid
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio 2026 Schedule
Ohio's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Ohio at Nebraska | +20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Ohio vs Jacksonville State | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Ohio at South Alabama | +2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Ohio vs Stonehill | -11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Ohio at Kent State | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Ohio vs Central Michigan | +1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Ohio at Sacramento State | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Ohio vs Eastern Michigan | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/3 | Ohio at Akron | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/10 | Ohio at Miami (OH) | +13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/17 | Ohio vs Ball State | -14 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Ohio vs Toledo | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
Kent State 2026 Schedule
Kent State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Kent State at South Carolina | +28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Kent State vs Wofford | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Kent State at Ohio State | +37 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Kent State vs Ball State | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Kent State vs Ohio | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Kent State at Western Michigan | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Kent State at South Florida | +20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Kent State vs Akron | +0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/30 | Kent State at Sacramento State | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/10 | Kent State at Bowling Green | +9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/17 | Kent State vs Miami (OH) | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/24 | Kent State at Eastern Michigan | +9 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kent State Edge
Kent State +0.07
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +23.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Ohio
John Hauser #77
1–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Scott Isphording
Yr 2
#109
DC
Kurt Mattix
Yr 1
#23
Kent State
Mark Carney #77
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Clay Patterson
Yr 1
#67
DC
Cherokee Valeria
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓