New Mexico State at Florida State - 2026 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo

New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles

Florida State logo
Saturday, August 29th 2026 (12:00 AM EDT)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL

 
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (7 - 17)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0.3 - 2.7 (#132)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Florida State -24.5  (SP+ FSU -23)
Projected Score: NMSU: 15 - FSU: 40 (55)
FSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
NMSU Travel: 1328 miles, 2 hrs behind
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#49)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 6) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
New Mexico State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29New Mexico State at Florida State+24.5
Sat 8/29New Mexico State at Florida State+24.5
Sat 9/12New Mexico State at Hawai'i+17.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26New Mexico State vs New Mexico+13.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Florida State vs New Mexico State-24.5
Sat 8/29Florida State vs New Mexico State-24.5
Mon 9/7Florida State vs SMU+5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19Florida State at Alabama+11.5
Sat 9/26Florida State vs Central Arkansas-29
Sat 10/3Florida State vs Virginia-3
Fri 10/9Florida State at Louisville+7
Sat 10/17Florida State at Miami+18
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31Florida State vs Clemson-0.5
Sat 11/7Florida State at Boston College-12
Fri 11/13Florida State at Pittsburgh+4
Sat 11/21Florida State vs NC State-4
Fri 11/27Florida State vs Florida-2.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 6, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 6, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#125 (.05)37% (123)21.633% (135)2.13 (134)7740% (92)2503.21 (114)#40 (.11)42% (72)27.641% (52)44% (108)3.29 (34)54.421.9
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.62036.7%3.21220328772502.639%59%33%40%20%.05
FSU Defense122216.142.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1227.637.542%3.291.9 - - - - - 50%48%41%44%16%.11
FSU Offense123343.345.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1230:0520.342%41%6.254.421.951.5128.4
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1239% (130)33% (135)29.777.42.69 (132)-.09 (135)2.13 (134)69% (89)11% (107)0.91 (88)
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1250% (61)41% (52) - - - - (15)2.99 (91)71% (70)9% (106)0.92 (45)
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1259% (7)40% (92)2339.3250.36.410.917 (86)16 (34).17 (112)1.4 (110)36% (130)27% (109).2 (108)10% (136)1.9 (102)
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1248% (66)44% (108) - - - - - - 15 (31).26 (76)1.5 (43)31% (69)27% (26).23 (45)7% (22)2.1 (104)
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -14.90  #123
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 6.31  #130
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 21.21  #119
2026 Talent Rating: 292.00  #133
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
New Mexico State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.3 - 2.7
New Mexico State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.5  #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7  #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436.36
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -14.90   Florida State: 9.535

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.5   Florida State: 7.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 9.535  #33
Florida State's Offense Rating: 16.75  #55
Florida State's Defense Rating: 9.88  #23
2026 Talent Rating: 919.00  #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 999  #1
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #40
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 848.71
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 40
New Mexico State 15


Projected Total Points: 55
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State000 Overs
New Mexico State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#123) NMSU at (#33) FSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSUFSU
Game ControlGC #112 #76
Momentum ControlMC #95 #30
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #123 #33
SP+SP+ #123 #40
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #133 #23
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #1
Florida State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Lowest in 40+ years, Norvell era failing
(3/16) TO's killed FSU LY, Off #'s were actually good
(3/16) QB: A Daniels (Aub) vs K Sperry (So)
(2/16) OL none back. 5 portals that started 12 games LY
(2/2) OC Gus Malzahn retiring, Tim Harris now OC (WR)
(2/2) Word is Norvell will call plays in '26
(2/1) RB has options. Wisner (Tx) added, Kromah back
(2/1) WR Robinson & Danzy great duo. Depth v young
(2/1) DL has some good parts + 2 exp'd portal adds
(2/1) LBs have one starter back and lots of questions
(2/1) DBs rebuild. 5 portal adds. Talent here but ?
Florida State Injury Report
New Mexico State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffFSU Def
Game ControlGC #122 #86
Momentum ControlMC #62 #61
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #123 #76
ExplosiveExp #56 #14
PPAPPA #125 #68
PowerPwr #130 #23
SP+SP+ #112 #38
Pts POPPO #114 #110
HavocHav #133 #72
New Mexico State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #135 #66
Run ExplRExp #88 #19
PPAExp #135 #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #134 #106
Stuff RateStuff #134 #120
TackleTak - NR
New Mexico State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #92 #79
Pass ExplPExl #110 #58
PPAExp #112 #69
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #107 #28
DB HavocDB #136 #122
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffNMSU Def
Game ControlGC #64 #104
Momentum ControlMC #13 #106
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32 #72
ExplosiveExp #20 #45
PPAPPA #22 #40
PowerPwr #55 #119
SP+SP+ #54 #120
Pts POPPO #46 #34
HavocHav #54 #71
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffNMSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #52
Run ExplRExp #45 #45
PPAExp #12 #15
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7 #91
Stuff RateStuff #5 #59
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #108
Pass ExplPExl #5 #43
PPAExp #46 #76
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #106
DB HavocDB #48 #22
Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NMSU's OC David Yost (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trey Hedden28741969%296717137.1
Adam Damante7010467%711546.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
James Jones (Tr)9895899.890
Dijon Stanley7329724.157
Isaiah Rudison4215823.836
Terrell Washington Jr. (Tr)289803.513
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyler King41588314.364
Brodrick Malone22242211.041
Lyndon Ravare (Tr)21237111.338
Josiah Thomas (Tr)2822838.120

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tory Gethers875312
Sone Aupiu686134
Nicolas Sessions613013
Bernock Iya533023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tory Gethers875312
Henry Davis III101101
Sone Aupiu686134
Gabe Peterson321190
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Charles280005
Sone Aupiu686134
Lorenzo Smith180003

FSU's OC Tim Harris (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dean DeNobile (Tr)22334764%25281977.3
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Blake Nichelson437111
Ja'Bril Rawls402002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ja'Bril Rawls402002