Sat, Sep 26 2026
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Louisville, KY
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
Wake Forest✈ 335 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Louisville,
while Game Control favors Wake Forest.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisville wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Wake Forest 2026 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | Wake Forest vs Akron | -20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Wake Forest at Purdue | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 9/18 | Wake Forest vs Miami | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Wake Forest at Louisville | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Wake Forest vs Stanford | -16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Wake Forest at NC State | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Wake Forest at California | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Wake Forest vs Virginia | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Wake Forest vs Merrimack | -28 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Wake Forest at SMU | +12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Wake Forest at Georgia Tech | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Wake Forest vs Duke | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
Louisville 2026 Schedule
Louisville's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Louisville vs Ole Miss | +8.5 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
| Fri 9/11 | Louisville vs Villanova | -31 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Louisville vs SMU | +0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Louisville vs Wake Forest | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Louisville at NC State | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/9 | Louisville vs Florida State | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Louisville at Syracuse | -16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Louisville vs Stanford | -22.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/6 | Louisville at Georgia Tech | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Louisville at North Carolina | -12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Louisville vs Pittsburgh | -5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Louisville at Kentucky | -8 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +7.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Jake Dickert #40
9–4 (69%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 2
#53
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 2
#51
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #25
28–12 (70%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 3
#25
DC
Mark Ivey
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓