Sat, Sep 13 2025
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Week 3
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🏟 Georgia State Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
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24,333 cap
Murray State✈ 298 mi+1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Georgia State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Georgia State -31.5
O/U 63.5
DraftKings
Murray State 2025 Schedule
Murray State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/13 | Murray State at Georgia State | +31.5L21–37 | 63.5 | L21–37 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Murray State at Jacksonville State | +35.5L10–45 | 60.5 | L10–45 | U | Y |
Georgia State 2025 Schedule
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Georgia State at Ole Miss | +38.5L7–63 | 62.5 | L7–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Georgia State vs Memphis | +14.5L16–38 | 57.5 | L16–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Georgia State vs Murray State | -31.5W37–21 | 63.5 | W37–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Georgia State at Vanderbilt | +27.5L21–70 | 53.5 | L21–70 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Georgia State vs James Madison | +19.5L7–14 | 52.5 | L7–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Georgia State vs App State | +3.0L20–41 | 55.5 | L20–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Georgia State at Georgia Southern | +6.5L24–41 | 58.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Thu 10/23 | Georgia State vs South Alabama | +5.5L31–38 | 54.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Georgia State at Coastal Carolina | +7.0L27–40 | 56.5 | L27–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Georgia State vs Marshall | +9.5L18–30 | 59.5 | L18–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Georgia State at Troy | +9.5L19–31 | 51.0 | L19–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Georgia State at Old Dominion | +29.0L10–27 | 58.5 | L10–27 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Murray State Edge
Murray State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +22.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓