Sat, Nov 1 2025
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Fayetteville, AR
·
Turf
·
72,000 cap
Mississippi State✈ 354 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Mississippi State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Mississippi State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Mississippi State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Mississippi State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arkansas -5.5
O/U 66.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arkansas
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Mississippi State 2025 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Mississippi State at Southern Miss | -11.5W34–17 | 59.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Mississippi State vs Arizona State | +6.0W24–20 | 58.5 | W24–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Mississippi State vs Alcorn State | -42.5W63–0 | 56.5 | W63–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois | -23.5W38–10 | 48.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Mississippi State vs Tennessee | +7.5L34–41 | 63.5 | L34–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Mississippi State at Texas A&M | +17.5L9–31 | 57.5 | L9–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | Mississippi State at Florida | +9.5L21–23 | 50.5 | L21–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Mississippi State vs Texas | +8.5L38–45 | 48.5 | L38–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Mississippi State at Arkansas | +5.5W38–35 | 66.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Mississippi State vs Georgia | +9.5L21–41 | 56.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Mississippi State at Missouri | +7.5L27–49 | 50.5 | L27–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/28 | Mississippi State vs Ole Miss | +7.5L19–38 | 62.5 | L19–38 | U | N |
| Fri 1/2 | Mississippi State vs Wake Forest | -3.0L29–43 | 52.5 | L29–43 | O | N |
Arkansas 2025 Schedule
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Arkansas vs Alabama A&M | -45.5W52–7 | 62.5 | W52–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Arkansas vs Arkansas State | -23.5W56–14 | 62.0 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Arkansas at Ole Miss | +3.5L35–41 | 60.5 | L35–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Arkansas at Memphis | -7.0L31–32 | 59.5 | L31–32 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Arkansas vs Notre Dame | +5.5L13–56 | 64.5 | L13–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Arkansas at Tennessee | +10.0L31–34 | 68.5 | L31–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +7.5L42–45 | 57.5 | L42–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Arkansas vs Auburn | -2.5L24–33 | 55.5 | L24–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Arkansas vs Mississippi State | -5.5L35–38 | 66.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Arkansas at LSU | +4.0L22–23 | 58.5 | L22–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Arkansas at Texas | +10.5L37–52 | 57.5 | L37–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Arkansas vs Missouri | +4.5L17–31 | 54.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +0.43
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +17.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas
54.9 — 21.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Mississippi State won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Mississippi State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby #1
2–10 (17%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 2
#1
DC
Coleman Hutzler
Yr 1
#1
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
29–31 (48%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Bobby Petrino
Yr 2
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓