Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Auburn wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Auburn -26.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Mercer 2025 Schedule
Mercer's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Mercer at Auburn | +26.5L17–62 | 51.5 | L17–62 | O | N |
Auburn 2025 Schedule
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Auburn at Baylor | -1.5W38–24 | 57.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Auburn vs Ball State | -43.0W42–3 | 52.5 | W42–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Auburn vs South Alabama | -26.5W31–15 | 56.5 | W31–15 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Auburn at Oklahoma | +6.5L17–24 | 47.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Auburn at Texas A&M | +6.5L10–16 | 51.5 | L10–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Auburn vs Georgia | +4.5L10–20 | 45.5 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Auburn vs Missouri | +1.5L17–23 | 43.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Auburn at Arkansas | +2.5W33–24 | 55.5 | W33–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Auburn vs Kentucky | -11.5L3–10 | 44.5 | L3–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Auburn at Vanderbilt | +6.0L38–45 | 46.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Auburn vs Mercer | -26.5W62–17 | 51.5 | W62–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Auburn vs Alabama | +6.5L20–27 | 48.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mercer Edge
Mercer +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +38.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓