Matchup Prediction
Georgia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Georgia wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Georgia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia -4.5
O/U 45.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia 2025 Schedule
Georgia's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Georgia vs Marshall | -39.5W45–7 | 55.5 | W45–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Georgia vs Austin Peay | -47.0W28–6 | 55.5 | W28–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Georgia at Tennessee | -3.5W44–41 | 50.5 | W44–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Georgia vs Alabama | -2.5L21–24 | 53.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Georgia vs Kentucky | -19.5W35–14 | 48.5 | W35–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Georgia at Auburn | -4.5W20–10 | 45.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Georgia vs Ole Miss | -7.5W43–35 | 56.5 | W43–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Georgia vs Florida | -7.0W24–20 | 50.5 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Georgia at Mississippi State | -9.5W41–21 | 56.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Georgia vs Texas | -3.5W35–10 | 50.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Georgia vs Charlotte | -42.5W35–3 | 53.5 | W35–3 | U | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Georgia vs Georgia Tech | -15.5W16–9 | 59.5 | W16–9 | U | N |
| Sat 12/6 | Georgia vs Alabama | -2.5W28–7 | 47.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/1 | Georgia vs Ole Miss | -6.0L34–39 | 53.5 | L34–39 | O | N |
Auburn 2025 Schedule
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Auburn at Baylor | -1.5W38–24 | 57.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Auburn vs Ball State | -43.0W42–3 | 52.5 | W42–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Auburn vs South Alabama | -26.5W31–15 | 56.5 | W31–15 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Auburn at Oklahoma | +6.5L17–24 | 47.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Auburn at Texas A&M | +6.5L10–16 | 51.5 | L10–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Auburn vs Georgia | +4.5L10–20 | 45.5 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Auburn vs Missouri | +1.5L17–23 | 43.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Auburn at Arkansas | +2.5W33–24 | 55.5 | W33–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Auburn vs Kentucky | -11.5L3–10 | 44.5 | L3–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Auburn at Vanderbilt | +6.0L38–45 | 46.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Auburn vs Mercer | -26.5W62–17 | 51.5 | W62–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Auburn vs Alabama | +6.5L20–27 | 48.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +0.45
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +6.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Auburn
43.3 — 36.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia
Kirby Smart #1
105–18 (85%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Mike Bobo
Yr 3
#1
DC
Glenn Schumann
Yr 2
#1
Auburn
Hugh Freeze #1
11–14 (44%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Derrick Nix
Yr 2
#1
DC
D. J. Durkin
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓