Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Alabama,
while Game Control favors Oklahoma.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Alabama wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Oklahoma wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oklahoma -1.5
O/U 42.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Alabama 2025 Schedule
Alabama's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Alabama at Florida State | -13.5L17–31 | 50.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Alabama vs UL Monroe | -34.0W73–0 | 50.0 | W73–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Alabama vs Wisconsin | -17.5W38–14 | 45.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Alabama at Georgia | +2.5W24–21 | 53.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Alabama vs Vanderbilt | -13.5W30–14 | 58.5 | W30–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Alabama at Missouri | -3.5W27–24 | 50.5 | W27–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Alabama vs Tennessee | -8.5W37–20 | 60.5 | W37–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Alabama at South Carolina | -11.5W29–22 | 47.5 | W29–22 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Alabama vs LSU | -10.5W20–9 | 49.5 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Alabama vs Oklahoma | -6.5L21–23 | 45.5 | L21–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Alabama vs Eastern Illinois | -50.5W56–0 | 57.5 | W56–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Alabama at Auburn | -6.5W27–20 | 48.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Alabama vs Georgia | +2.5L7–28 | 47.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Fri 12/19 | Alabama at Oklahoma | +1.5W34–24 | 42.0 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Thu 1/1 | Alabama vs Indiana | +7.5L3–38 | 46.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
Oklahoma 2025 Schedule
Oklahoma's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Oklahoma vs Illinois State | -39.5W35–3 | 61.0 | W35–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Oklahoma vs Michigan | -3.0W24–13 | 47.5 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Oklahoma at Temple | -23.5W42–3 | 50.5 | W42–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Oklahoma vs Auburn | -6.5W24–17 | 47.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Oklahoma vs Kent State | -46.5W44–0 | 53.5 | W44–0 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Oklahoma vs Texas | +2.5L6–23 | 44.5 | L6–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Oklahoma at South Carolina | -4.5W26–7 | 42.5 | W26–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Oklahoma vs Ole Miss | -5.5L26–34 | 52.5 | L26–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Oklahoma at Tennessee | +3.0W33–27 | 55.5 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Oklahoma at Alabama | +6.5W23–21 | 45.5 | W23–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Oklahoma vs Missouri | -4.5W17–6 | 42.5 | W17–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Oklahoma vs LSU | -11.5W17–13 | 36.5 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Fri 12/19 | Oklahoma vs Alabama | -1.5L24–34 | 42.0 | L24–34 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +0.39
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oklahoma Edge
Oklahoma +0.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Alabama
37.2 — 43.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Alabama won by 10
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Alabama
Kalen DeBoer #1
9–3 (75%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Ryan Grubb
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kane Wommack
Yr 2
#1
Oklahoma
Brent Venables #1
22–16 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ben Arbuckle
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓