Sat, Sep 9 2023
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Neyland Stadium
Knoxville, TN
·
Turf
·
102,455 cap
Austin Peay✈ 195 mi+1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Tennessee wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Tennessee wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -48
O/U 65.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Austin Peay 2023 Schedule
Austin Peay's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/9 | Austin Peay at Tennessee | +48.0L13–30 | 65.5 | L13–30 | U | Y |
Tennessee 2023 Schedule
Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Tennessee vs Virginia | -27.5W49–13 | 56.0 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Tennessee vs Austin Peay | -48.0W30–13 | 65.5 | W30–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Tennessee at Florida | -5.0L16–29 | 57.0 | L16–29 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Tennessee vs UTSA | -24.0W45–14 | 59.0 | W45–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Tennessee vs South Carolina | -12.0W41–20 | 59.0 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Tennessee vs Texas A&M | -3.0W20–13 | 54.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Tennessee at Alabama | +8.5L20–34 | 47.5 | L20–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Tennessee at Kentucky | -4.0W33–27 | 50.5 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Tennessee vs UConn | -35.0W59–3 | 55.5 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Tennessee at Missouri | -1.0L7–36 | 58.5 | L7–36 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Tennessee vs Georgia | +9.0L10–38 | 59.0 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Tennessee vs Vanderbilt | -27.0W48–24 | 58.0 | W48–24 | O | N |
| Mon 1/1 | Tennessee vs Iowa | -4.5W35–0 | 37.0 | W35–0 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +2.04
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +71.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓