Sat, Sep 23 2023
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Hancock Whitney Stadium
Mobile, AL
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Central Michigan✈ 303 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
South Alabama
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
South Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -16.5
O/U 46.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Central Michigan 2023 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Central Michigan at Michigan State | +14.0L7–31 | 45.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Central Michigan vs New Hampshire | -7.0W45–42 | 48.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Central Michigan at Notre Dame | +34.5L17–41 | 51.5 | L17–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Central Michigan at South Alabama | +16.5W34–30 | 46.5 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -9.5W26–23 | 45.0 | W26–23 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Central Michigan at Buffalo | -2.5L13–37 | 51.5 | L13–37 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Central Michigan vs Akron | -10.5W17–10 | 44.0 | W17–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Central Michigan at Ball State | -5.0L17–24 | 42.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/31 | Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois | +3.0W37–31 | 48.0 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/7 | Central Michigan at Western Michigan | +3.5L28–38 | 57.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Wed 11/15 | Central Michigan at Ohio | +11.5L20–34 | 48.5 | L20–34 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Central Michigan vs Toledo | +12.5L17–32 | 54.5 | L17–32 | U | N |
South Alabama 2023 Schedule
South Alabama's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | South Alabama at Tulane | +6.0L17–37 | 51.0 | L17–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | South Alabama vs SE Louisiana | -24.0W35–17 | 59.5 | W35–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | South Alabama at Oklahoma State | +7.0W33–7 | 49.5 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | South Alabama vs Central Michigan | -16.5L30–34 | 46.5 | L30–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | South Alabama at James Madison | +1.0L23–31 | 48.5 | L23–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | South Alabama at UL Monroe | -11.0W55–7 | 51.5 | W55–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/17 | South Alabama vs Southern Miss | -18.5W55–3 | 51.0 | W55–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | South Alabama vs Louisiana | -11.5L20–33 | 55.0 | L20–33 | U | N |
| Thu 11/2 | South Alabama at Troy | +5.5L10–28 | 44.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | South Alabama vs Arkansas State | -14.5W21–14 | 54.5 | W21–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | South Alabama vs Marshall | -10.5W28–0 | 44.5 | W28–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | South Alabama at Texas State | -6.5L44–52 | 57.0 | L44–52 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | South Alabama at Eastern Michigan | -18.0W59–10 | 43.0 | W59–10 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +14.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Central Michigan
35.0 — 41.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Central Michigan won by 4
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Alabama with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
25–23 (52%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Paul Petrino
Yr 2
#1
DC
Robb Akey
Yr 3
#1
South Alabama
Kane Wommack #1
17–11 (61%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Major Applewhite
Yr 3
#1
DC
Corey Batoon
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓