Thu, Oct 26 2023
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Paulson Stadium
Statesboro, GA
·
Turf
·
24,300 cap
Georgia State✈ 176 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Georgia State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Georgia State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Georgia State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia State -1.0
O/U 63.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia State 2023 Schedule
Georgia State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Georgia State vs Rhode Island | -18.0W42–35 | 61.5 | W42–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Georgia State vs UConn | -3.0W35–14 | 54.5 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Georgia State at Charlotte | -6.5W41–25 | 52.0 | W41–25 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/21 | Georgia State at Coastal Carolina | +4.5W30–17 | 62.5 | W30–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Georgia State vs Troy | -1.0L7–28 | 50.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Georgia State vs Marshall | -2.0W41–24 | 53.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Georgia State at Louisiana | +3.0W20–17 | 62.0 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/26 | Georgia State at Georgia Southern | -1.0L27–44 | 63.0 | L27–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Georgia State vs James Madison | +6.0L14–42 | 53.0 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Georgia State vs App State | -2.5L14–42 | 62.5 | L14–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Georgia State at LSU | +32.5L14–56 | 73.5 | L14–56 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Georgia State at Old Dominion | +2.0L24–25 | 49.5 | L24–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | Georgia State vs Utah State | +2.0W45–22 | 58.0 | W45–22 | O | Y |
Georgia Southern 2023 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Georgia Southern vs The Citadel | -34.0W34–0 | 53.5 | W34–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Georgia Southern vs UAB | -7.0W49–35 | 63.0 | W49–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Georgia Southern at Wisconsin | +20.5L14–35 | 65.5 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Georgia Southern at Ball State | -6.0W40–3 | 60.0 | W40–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina | -6.0W38–28 | 67.5 | W38–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Georgia Southern at James Madison | +5.5L13–41 | 60.0 | L13–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Georgia Southern vs UL Monroe | -16.5W38–28 | 60.5 | W38–28 | O | N |
| Thu 10/26 | Georgia Southern vs Georgia State | +1.0W44–27 | 63.0 | W44–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Georgia Southern at Texas State | -2.0L24–45 | 69.0 | L24–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Georgia Southern at Marshall | -1.5L33–38 | 56.5 | L33–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion | -4.5L17–20 | 61.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Georgia Southern at App State | +7.5L27–55 | 62.5 | L27–55 | O | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Georgia Southern vs Ohio | -1.5L21–41 | 48.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia State Edge
Georgia State +12.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia Southern
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Georgia Southern
77.8 — 7.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia Southern won by 17
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia State
Shawn Elliott #1
37–38 (49%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Trent McKnight
Yr 2
#1
DC
Chad Staggs
Yr 1
#1
Georgia Southern
Clay Helton #1
8–8 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Bryan Ellis
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brandon Bailey
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓