Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Rice-Eccles Stadium
Salt Lake City, UT
·
Turf
·
45,807 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Weber State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Utah -26.5
O/U 44.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Weber State 2023 Schedule
Weber State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/16 | Weber State at Utah | +26.5L7–31 | 44.0 | L7–31 | U | Y |
Utah 2023 Schedule
Utah's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Utah vs Florida | -5.5W24–11 | 44.5 | W24–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Utah at Baylor | -7.0W20–13 | 46.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Utah vs Weber State | -26.5W31–7 | 44.0 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Utah vs UCLA | -3.0W14–7 | 50.5 | W14–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/29 | Utah at Oregon State | +4.0L7–21 | 43.0 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Utah vs California | -9.0W34–14 | 42.5 | W34–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Utah at USC | +7.5W34–32 | 51.5 | W34–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Utah vs Oregon | +6.5L6–35 | 47.5 | L6–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Utah vs Arizona State | -11.0W55–3 | 40.5 | W55–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Utah at Washington | +9.5L28–35 | 48.5 | L28–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Utah at Arizona | +2.5L18–42 | 45.5 | L18–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Utah vs Colorado | -21.5W23–17 | 43.5 | W23–17 | U | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Utah vs Northwestern | -6.5L7–14 | 44.5 | L7–14 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Weber State Edge
Weber State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Weber State Edge
Weber State +12.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓