Sat, Oct 7 2023
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Annapolis, MD
·
Turf
·
34,000 cap
North Texas✈ 1,217 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
North Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
North Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
North Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
North Texas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Navy -6.5
O/U 60.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
North Texas 2023 Schedule
North Texas's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | North Texas vs California | +5.0L21–58 | 53.5 | L21–58 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | North Texas at Florida International | -10.5L39–46 | 51.5 | L39–46 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | North Texas at Louisiana Tech | +4.5W40–37 | 66.5 | W40–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/30 | North Texas vs Abilene Christian | -15.5W45–31 | 70.5 | W45–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | North Texas at Navy | +6.5L24–27 | 60.5 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | North Texas vs Temple | -8.0W45–14 | 65.5 | W45–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | North Texas at Tulane | +20.0L28–35 | 63.5 | L28–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | North Texas vs Memphis | +6.5L42–45 | 70.0 | L42–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | North Texas vs UTSA | +7.5L29–37 | 71.0 | L29–37 | U | N |
| Fri 11/10 | North Texas at SMU | +21.5L21–45 | 67.5 | L21–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | North Texas at Tulsa | -1.5W35–28 | 69.5 | W35–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | North Texas vs UAB | -3.0W45–42 | 72.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
Navy 2023 Schedule
Navy's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Navy vs Notre Dame | +20.5L3–42 | 49.0 | L3–42 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Navy vs Wagner | -43.5W24–0 | 49.0 | W24–0 | U | N |
| Thu 9/14 | Navy at Memphis | +12.5L24–28 | 47.0 | L24–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/30 | Navy vs South Florida | -4.0L30–44 | 54.0 | L30–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Navy vs North Texas | -6.5W27–24 | 60.5 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Navy at Charlotte | -3.5W14–0 | 44.0 | W14–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Navy vs Air Force | +11.0L6–17 | 34.0 | L6–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Navy at Temple | -7.0L18–32 | 46.0 | L18–32 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Navy vs UAB | +3.5W31–6 | 52.5 | W31–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Navy vs East Carolina | -2.5W10–0 | 30.5 | W10–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Navy at SMU | +20.0L14–59 | 46.0 | L14–59 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 12/9 | Navy vs Army | +2.0L11–17 | 28.0 | L11–17 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +12.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Texas with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jordan Davis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt Caponi
Yr 1
#1
Navy
Brian Newberry #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Grant Chesnut
Yr 1
#1
DC
P.J. Volker
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓