Matchup Prediction
Louisiana
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Louisiana entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Louisiana wins
Strong
Game Control
64.9%
Louisiana wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisiana -11.5
O/U 52.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisiana 2022 Schedule
Louisiana's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Louisiana vs SE Louisiana | -13.5W24–7 | 61.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Louisiana vs Eastern Michigan | -11.0W49–21 | 56.0 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Louisiana at Rice | -11.5L21–33 | 52.0 | L21–33 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Louisiana at UL Monroe | -9.5L17–21 | 51.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Louisiana vs South Alabama | +8.5L17–20 | 47.0 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/12 | Louisiana at Marshall | +10.5W23–13 | 45.5 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Louisiana vs Arkansas State | -6.0W38–18 | 51.0 | W38–18 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/27 | Louisiana at Southern Miss | -2.5L24–39 | 42.5 | L24–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Louisiana vs Troy | +3.5L17–23 | 42.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Thu 11/10 | Louisiana vs Georgia Southern | -3.5W36–17 | 63.0 | W36–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Louisiana at Florida State | +25.0L17–49 | 52.5 | L17–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Louisiana at Texas State | -5.0W41–13 | 44.0 | W41–13 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/23 | Louisiana vs Houston | +5.5L16–23 | 56.5 | L16–23 | U | N |
Rice 2022 Schedule
Rice's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Rice at USC | +33.0L14–66 | 61.5 | L14–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Rice vs McNeese | -7.5W52–10 | 52.5 | W52–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Rice vs Louisiana | +11.5W33–21 | 52.0 | W33–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Rice at Houston | +17.5L27–34 | 52.5 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Rice vs UAB | +10.5W28–24 | 51.0 | W28–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Rice at Florida Atlantic | +5.0L14–17 | 54.5 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Rice at Louisiana Tech | -3.0W42–41 | 57.0 | W42–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Rice vs Charlotte | -15.0L23–56 | 61.0 | L23–56 | O | N |
| Thu 11/3 | Rice vs UTEP | -3.5W37–30 | 47.0 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Rice at Western Kentucky | +13.5L10–45 | 61.0 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Rice vs UTSA | +14.0L7–41 | 56.0 | L7–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Rice at North Texas | +14.5L17–21 | 57.0 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Rice vs Southern Miss | +7.0L24–38 | 46.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +3.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +19.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Rice
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Louisiana
36.0 — 47.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Rice won by 12
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisiana with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisiana
Michael Desormeaux #1
1–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tim Leger
Yr 1
#1
DC
LaMar Morgan
Yr 1
#1
Rice
Mike Bloomgren #1
11–31 (26%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Marques Tuiasosopo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brian Smith
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓