Sat, Sep 17 2022
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Notre Dame Stadium
Notre Dame, IN
·
Turf
·
80,795 cap
California✈ 1,916 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
California
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
California entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
California wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
California wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Notre Dame -13.5
O/U 41.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Notre Dame
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
California 2022 Schedule
California's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | California vs UC Davis | -14.0W34–13 | 44.0 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | California vs UNLV | -12.0W20–14 | 49.5 | W20–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | California at Notre Dame | +13.5L17–24 | 41.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | California vs Arizona | -3.5W49–31 | 50.0 | W49–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | California at Washington State | +4.0L9–28 | 52.5 | L9–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | California at Colorado | -15.0L13–20 | 49.0 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | California vs Washington | +7.5L21–28 | 54.5 | L21–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | California vs Oregon | +16.5L24–42 | 56.5 | L24–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | California at USC | +21.5L35–41 | 60.5 | L35–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | California at Oregon State | +11.5L10–38 | 47.0 | L10–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | California vs Stanford | -5.0W27–20 | 46.0 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | California vs UCLA | +11.5L28–35 | 62.5 | L28–35 | O | Y |
Notre Dame 2022 Schedule
Notre Dame's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Notre Dame at Ohio State | +17.0L10–21 | 58.5 | L10–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Notre Dame vs Marshall | -20.5L21–26 | 48.0 | L21–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Notre Dame vs California | -13.5W24–17 | 41.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Notre Dame at North Carolina | +2.5W45–32 | 55.0 | W45–32 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Notre Dame vs BYU | -4.0W28–20 | 51.0 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Notre Dame vs Stanford | -16.5L14–16 | 53.5 | L14–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Notre Dame vs UNLV | -26.0W44–21 | 46.5 | W44–21 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Notre Dame at Syracuse | +1.0W41–24 | 48.0 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Notre Dame vs Clemson | +3.5W35–14 | 43.5 | W35–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Notre Dame vs Navy | -17.0W35–32 | 40.5 | W35–32 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Notre Dame vs Boston College | -20.0W44–0 | 42.0 | W44–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Notre Dame at USC | +4.0L27–38 | 63.5 | L27–38 | O | N |
| Fri 12/30 | Notre Dame vs South Carolina | -5.0W45–38 | 50.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Notre Dame
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
California Edge
California +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
California Edge
California +40.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Notre Dame
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Notre Dame
68.4 — 15.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Notre Dame won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on California with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
California
Justin Wilcox #1
26–28 (48%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Bill Musgrave
Yr 2
#1
DC
Peter Sirmon
Yr 2
#1
Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman #1
0–1 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tommy Rees
Yr 2
#1
DC
Al Golden
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓