Sat, Sep 3 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Kinnick Stadium
Iowa City, IA
·
Turf
·
70,585 cap
South Dakota State✈ 321 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
South Dakota State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa -11.0
O/U 42.5
Bovada
South Dakota State 2022 Schedule
South Dakota State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | South Dakota State at Iowa | +11.0L3–7 | 42.5 | L3–7 | U | Y |
Iowa 2022 Schedule
Iowa's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Iowa vs South Dakota State | -11.0W7–3 | 42.5 | W7–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Iowa vs Iowa State | -3.5L7–10 | 39.0 | L7–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Iowa vs Nevada | -24.0W27–0 | 39.0 | W27–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Iowa at Rutgers | -7.5W27–10 | 34.5 | W27–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Iowa vs Michigan | +10.5L14–27 | 42.0 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Iowa at Illinois | +3.5L6–9 | 36.5 | L6–9 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Iowa at Ohio State | +29.5L10–54 | 50.0 | L10–54 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Iowa vs Northwestern | -11.5W33–13 | 37.0 | W33–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Iowa at Purdue | +3.5W24–3 | 39.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Iowa vs Wisconsin | -1.0W24–10 | 35.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Iowa at Minnesota | +2.0W13–10 | 31.5 | W13–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Iowa vs Nebraska | -10.5L17–24 | 38.0 | L17–24 | O | N |
| Sat 12/31 | Iowa vs Kentucky | -3.0W21–0 | 31.5 | W21–0 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Dakota State Edge
South Dakota State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Dakota State Edge
South Dakota State +17.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓