Sat, Sep 3 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Rentschler Field
East Hartford, CT
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
UConn wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Connecticut -20.5
O/U 51.5
consensus
Central Connecticut 2022 Schedule
Central Connecticut's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Central Connecticut at UConn | +20.5L3–28 | 51.5 | L3–28 | U | N |
UConn 2022 Schedule
UConn's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | UConn at Utah State | +24.0L20–31 | 59.0 | L20–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/3 | UConn vs Central Connecticut | -20.5W28–3 | 51.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | UConn vs Syracuse | +23.5L14–48 | 49.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | UConn at Michigan | +47.5L0–59 | 59.0 | L0–59 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | UConn at NC State | +38.5L10–41 | 48.0 | L10–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | UConn vs Fresno State | +23.5W19–14 | 51.0 | W19–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | UConn at Florida International | -5.5W33–12 | 46.5 | W33–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | UConn at Ball State | +9.5L21–25 | 47.5 | L21–25 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | UConn vs Boston College | +8.0W13–3 | 44.0 | W13–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/4 | UConn vs Massachusetts | -15.0W27–10 | 39.5 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | UConn vs Liberty | +13.5W36–33 | 45.0 | W36–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | UConn at Army | +10.5L17–34 | 45.0 | L17–34 | O | N |
| Mon 12/19 | UConn vs Marshall | +11.5L14–28 | 42.0 | L14–28 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Central Connecticut Edge
Central Connecticut +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UConn Edge
UConn +14.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓