Sat, Oct 29 2022
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Rentschler Field
East Hartford, CT
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Boston College✈ 84 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
UConn
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UConn entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
UConn wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
UConn wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Boston College -8.0
O/U 44.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boston College
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Boston College 2022 Schedule
Boston College's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Boston College vs Rutgers | -8.5L21–22 | 47.0 | L21–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Boston College at Virginia Tech | +2.5L10–27 | 45.0 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Boston College vs Maine | -31.0W38–17 | 48.0 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Boston College at Florida State | +18.5L14–44 | 48.5 | L14–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Boston College vs Louisville | +13.5W34–33 | 48.5 | W34–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Boston College vs Clemson | +21.0L3–31 | 49.0 | L3–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Boston College at Wake Forest | +20.0L15–43 | 60.0 | L15–43 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Boston College at UConn | -8.0L3–13 | 44.0 | L3–13 | U | N |
| Fri 11/4 | Boston College vs Duke | +11.5L31–38 | 47.0 | L31–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Boston College at NC State | +18.0W21–20 | 41.0 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Boston College at Notre Dame | +20.0L0–44 | 42.0 | L0–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Boston College vs Syracuse | +10.5L23–32 | 47.0 | L23–32 | O | Y |
UConn 2022 Schedule
UConn's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | UConn at Utah State | +24.0L20–31 | 59.0 | L20–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/3 | UConn vs Central Connecticut | -20.5W28–3 | 51.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | UConn vs Syracuse | +23.5L14–48 | 49.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | UConn at Michigan | +47.5L0–59 | 59.0 | L0–59 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | UConn at NC State | +38.5L10–41 | 48.0 | L10–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | UConn vs Fresno State | +23.5W19–14 | 51.0 | W19–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | UConn at Florida International | -5.5W33–12 | 46.5 | W33–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | UConn at Ball State | +9.5L21–25 | 47.5 | L21–25 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | UConn vs Boston College | +8.0W13–3 | 44.0 | W13–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/4 | UConn vs Massachusetts | -15.0W27–10 | 39.5 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | UConn vs Liberty | +13.5W36–33 | 45.0 | W36–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | UConn at Army | +10.5L17–34 | 45.0 | L17–34 | O | N |
| Mon 12/19 | UConn vs Marshall | +11.5L14–28 | 42.0 | L14–28 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boston College
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UConn Edge
UConn +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UConn Edge
UConn +3.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UConn
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
UConn
65.8 — 14.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UConn won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UConn, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
11–11 (50%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
John McNulty
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tem Lukabu
Yr 2
#1
UConn
Jim L. Mora #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Nick Charlton
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lou Spanos
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓