Sat, Nov 19 2022
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Sun Bowl Stadium
El Paso, TX
·
Turf
·
51,500 cap
Florida International✈ 1,632 mi-2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
UTEP
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UTEP entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
UTEP wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
UTEP wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UTEP -14
O/U 50.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UTEP
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida International 2022 Schedule
Florida International's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Florida International vs Bryant | -10.5W38–37 | 58.5 | W38–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Florida International at Texas State | +13.5L12–41 | 62.5 | L12–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | Florida International at Western Kentucky | +31.0L0–73 | 65.0 | L0–73 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Florida International at New Mexico State | +15.0W21–7 | 54.0 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Florida International vs UConn | +5.5L12–33 | 46.5 | L12–33 | U | N |
| Fri 10/14 | Florida International vs UTSA | +33.0L10–30 | 64.0 | L10–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Florida International at Charlotte | +14.0W34–15 | 63.5 | W34–15 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/28 | Florida International vs Louisiana Tech | +6.5W42–34 | 57.0 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Florida International at North Texas | +21.0L14–52 | 63.5 | L14–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Florida International vs Florida Atlantic | +15.0L7–52 | 54.5 | L7–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Florida International at UTEP | +14.0L6–40 | 50.0 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Florida International vs Middle Tennessee | +19.5L28–33 | 54.5 | L28–33 | O | Y |
UTEP 2022 Schedule
UTEP's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | UTEP vs North Texas | +1.5L13–31 | 52.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/3 | UTEP at Oklahoma | +31.0L13–45 | 58.0 | L13–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | UTEP vs New Mexico State | -17.0W20–13 | 46.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | UTEP at New Mexico | -2.0L10–27 | 38.0 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | UTEP vs Boise State | +16.0W27–10 | 44.5 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | UTEP at Charlotte | -3.5W41–35 | 56.0 | W41–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | UTEP at Louisiana Tech | +2.0L31–41 | 52.0 | L31–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | UTEP vs Florida Atlantic | +3.0W24–21 | 50.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | UTEP vs Middle Tennessee | -2.5L13–24 | 52.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Thu 11/3 | UTEP at Rice | +3.5L30–37 | 47.0 | L30–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/19 | UTEP vs Florida International | -14.0W40–6 | 50.0 | W40–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | UTEP at UTSA | +16.5L31–34 | 56.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UTEP
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UTEP Edge
UTEP +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UTEP Edge
UTEP +6.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UTEP
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
UTEP
94.3 — 2.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UTEP won by 34
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UTEP. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
David Yost
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jovan Dewitt
Yr 1
#1
UTEP
Dana Dimel #1
12–33 (27%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Dave Warner
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bradley Dale Peveto
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓