Sat, Nov 26 2022
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Paulson Stadium
Statesboro, GA
·
Turf
·
24,300 cap
App State✈ 262 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
App State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
App State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
App State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
App State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Appalachian State -6.5
O/U 66.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → App State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
App State 2022 Schedule
App State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | App State vs North Carolina | -3.0L61–63 | 56.0 | L61–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | App State at Texas A&M | +18.0W17–14 | 54.0 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | App State vs Troy | -14.0W32–28 | 52.0 | W32–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | App State vs James Madison | -6.0L28–32 | 57.0 | L28–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | App State vs The Citadel | -39.0W49–0 | 54.5 | W49–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | App State at Texas State | -19.5L24–36 | 54.5 | L24–36 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/19 | App State vs Georgia State | -9.5W42–17 | 60.5 | W42–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | App State vs Robert Morris | -50.0W42–3 | 59.5 | W42–3 | U | N |
| Thu 11/3 | App State at Coastal Carolina | -3.0L28–35 | 65.5 | L28–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | App State at Marshall | -2.0L21–28 | 47.5 | L21–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | App State vs Old Dominion | -16.5W27–14 | 50.5 | W27–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | App State at Georgia Southern | -6.5L48–51 | 66.0 | L48–51 | O | N |
Georgia Southern 2022 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Georgia Southern vs Morgan State | -39.5W59–7 | 53.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Georgia Southern at Nebraska | +23.5W45–42 | 64.0 | W45–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Georgia Southern at UAB | +11.5L21–35 | 59.0 | L21–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Georgia Southern vs Ball State | -9.5W34–23 | 67.0 | W34–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina | +10.0L30–34 | 69.5 | L30–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Georgia Southern at Georgia State | +2.5L33–41 | 67.5 | L33–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Georgia Southern vs James Madison | +13.0W45–38 | 68.0 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Georgia Southern at Old Dominion | +1.5W28–23 | 66.0 | W28–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Georgia Southern vs South Alabama | +3.5L31–38 | 60.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Thu 11/10 | Georgia Southern at Louisiana | +3.5L17–36 | 63.0 | L17–36 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Georgia Southern vs Marshall | +6.0L10–23 | 52.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Georgia Southern vs App State | +6.5W51–48 | 66.0 | W51–48 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/27 | Georgia Southern vs Buffalo | -6.0L21–23 | 67.0 | L21–23 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ App State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
App State Edge
App State +0.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +17.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on App State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
App State
Shawn Clark #1
20–7 (74%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kevin Barbay
Yr 1
#1
DC
Dale Jones
Yr 2
#1
Georgia Southern
Clay Helton #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Bryan Ellis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Will Harris
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓