Sat, Oct 1 2022
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Kidd Brewer Stadium
Boone, NC
·
Turf
·
24,050 cap
The Citadel✈ 255 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
App State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Appalachian State -39
O/U 54.5
consensus
The Citadel 2022 Schedule
The Citadel's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/1 | The Citadel at App State | +39.0L0–49 | 54.5 | L0–49 | U | N |
App State 2022 Schedule
App State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | App State vs North Carolina | -3.0L61–63 | 56.0 | L61–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | App State at Texas A&M | +18.0W17–14 | 54.0 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | App State vs Troy | -14.0W32–28 | 52.0 | W32–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | App State vs James Madison | -6.0L28–32 | 57.0 | L28–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | App State vs The Citadel | -39.0W49–0 | 54.5 | W49–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | App State at Texas State | -19.5L24–36 | 54.5 | L24–36 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/19 | App State vs Georgia State | -9.5W42–17 | 60.5 | W42–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | App State vs Robert Morris | -50.0W42–3 | 59.5 | W42–3 | U | N |
| Thu 11/3 | App State at Coastal Carolina | -3.0L28–35 | 65.5 | L28–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | App State at Marshall | -2.0L21–28 | 47.5 | L21–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | App State vs Old Dominion | -16.5W27–14 | 50.5 | W27–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | App State at Georgia Southern | -6.5L48–51 | 66.0 | L48–51 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
The Citadel Edge
The Citadel +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +59.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓