Sat, Oct 1 2022
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Bowling Green, KY
·
Turf
·
22,113 cap
Troy✈ 359 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Western Kentucky
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Western Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Western Kentucky wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Western Kentucky wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -5
O/U 55.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Western Kentucky
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Troy 2022 Schedule
Troy's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Troy at Ole Miss | +21.5L10–28 | 56.5 | L10–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Troy vs Alabama A&M | -37.5W38–17 | 52.0 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Troy at App State | +14.0L28–32 | 52.0 | L28–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Troy vs Marshall | +3.0W16–7 | 51.5 | W16–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Troy at Western Kentucky | +5.0W34–27 | 55.0 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Troy vs Southern Miss | -7.0W27–10 | 44.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Troy vs Texas State | -16.5W17–14 | 47.0 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Thu 10/20 | Troy at South Alabama | +3.0W10–6 | 47.0 | W10–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Troy at Louisiana | -3.5W23–17 | 42.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Troy vs Army | -8.5W10–9 | 45.5 | W10–9 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Troy vs UL Monroe | -15.0W34–16 | 48.5 | W34–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Troy at Arkansas State | -13.5W48–19 | 43.5 | W48–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Troy vs Coastal Carolina | -7.0W45–26 | 49.0 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/16 | Troy vs UTSA | -2.0W18–12 | 55.5 | W18–12 | U | Y |
Western Kentucky 2022 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Western Kentucky vs Austin Peay | -32.5W38–27 | 72.0 | W38–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/3 | Western Kentucky at Hawai'i | -16.5W49–17 | 67.5 | W49–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/17 | Western Kentucky at Indiana | +7.0L30–33 | 61.0 | L30–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Western Kentucky vs Florida International | -31.0W73–0 | 65.0 | W73–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Western Kentucky vs Troy | -5.0L27–34 | 55.0 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Western Kentucky at UTSA | +6.5L28–31 | 72.5 | L28–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee | -7.5W35–17 | 67.5 | W35–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/21 | Western Kentucky vs UAB | -1.5W20–17 | 60.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Western Kentucky vs North Texas | -10.0L13–40 | 70.0 | L13–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Western Kentucky at Charlotte | -14.5W59–7 | 72.5 | W59–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Western Kentucky vs Rice | -13.5W45–10 | 61.0 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Western Kentucky at Auburn | +5.0L17–41 | 54.0 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic | -7.5W32–31 | 62.5 | W32–31 | O | N |
| Wed 12/21 | Western Kentucky vs South Alabama | +4.0W44–23 | 58.0 | W44–23 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Kentucky Edge
Western Kentucky +1.92
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Kentucky Edge
Western Kentucky +45.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Troy
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Troy
33.7 — 42.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Troy won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Troy
Jon Sumrall #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Joe Craddock
Yr 1
#1
DC
Shiel Wood
Yr 1
#1
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
23–16 (59%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ben Arbuckle
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓